Federal forces control Mekelle following a brief war, though residents face severe economic hardship and deep uncertainty about what comes next in Ethiopia’s troubled northern Tigray region.
Running a hair salon in Mekelle is not easy at the moment, according to Firut Me’ar, a single mother of a 10-year-old daughter. People cannot prioritize beauty over daily basic needs, and business is almost non-existent because residents have no money and no morale.
“Above all, she says people are worried about what the future holds,” Firut said, describing life under national army control.
Why did fighting resume in Tigray?
The conflict marks a resumption of fighting following the 2022 Pretoria agreement. Fighting broke out between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the national army.
Federal forces entered the city to crush a rebel attempt to overthrow Ethiopia’s government. Hundreds of people are reported to have died in the conflict, including dozens killed by drone strikes and bombing raids by the air force.
What are the government and analysts saying about the TPLF defeat?
Ethiopian government officials and supporters argue that the war is effectively over and that the only remaining task is to clear Tigray of TPLF elements. Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official who switched sides and is now an adviser to the prime minister, declared that the war in Tigray had ended and that stabilising the region should now be the immediate priority.
“The TPLF has lost popular support at home. It is fragmented, it does not possess the advanced military technology necessary to match the ENDF [Ethiopian National Defence Forces],” said Cameroon Hudson, an analyst and consultant on African peace and security.
He says the TPLF no longer possesses the size, strength or military capability required to effectively confront federal forces, which he says have significantly expanded and modernised in recent years. “The TPLF has also lost much of its public support and cannot easily rebuild its ranks through recruitment,” he says.
How does the TPLF respond to claims of defeat?
Lieutenant General Fisseha Kidanu, commander of the Tigray army, pledged to reverse recent military setbacks, saying Tigray was still at war. “Local militias across the region – alongside all volunteers joining the resistance – are expected to engage the enemy,” he said.
Fisseha urged attacks on government-held positions. The TPLF has also claimed to have inflicted heavy losses on government forces.
Where is fighting continuing across Tigray?
Residents report that fighting continues, with military convoys from both sides having moved towards Sheraro, while a motorcycle operator in the southern town of Yechila says military checkpoints are still active.
Military sources aligned with the federal army say operations against the TPLF are continuing, with recent fighting. Yared points to the TPLF’s history of overcoming setbacks as evidence that the movement could recover to sustain a prolonged struggle. “The TPLF has overcome many major challenges in the past. It is wrong to conclude that it has no public support,” said Yared.