## U.S. Census Bureau Adjusts Population Projections to Reflect Migration Shifts
U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for 2026-2028 will account for recent shifts in international migration patterns, adjusting previous methodologies to reflect current trends.
- The Census Bureau is updating its methodology for projecting population estimates due to changing international migration trends.
- Historically, the Bureau held the last year of observed net international migration (NIM) data constant for projection periods, but this approach is no longer considered accurate.
- Estimates of emigration, especially from Mexico and other Latin American countries, have been increased for the period ending June 30, 2025.
The U.S. Census Bureau is revising its population projection methods to account for the increasing fluidity of international migration trends, the agency stated. The changes will impact estimates for the years 2026 through 2028. The decision stems from a recognition that past methods were no longer accurately reflecting current realities.
Did you know?-The U.S. Census Bureau produces population estimates annually, providing critical data for resource allocation and planning at all levels of government. These estimates are not the same as the decennial census.
Previously, the bureau held the last year of observed net international migration (NIM) data constant when creating projections. For the Vintage 2025 estimates, this would have meant holding the NIM level from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, constant through 2028. However, the agency persistent that, given recent shifts, this approach would have resulted in projections that were too high. Specifically, immigration rates have slowed while emigration has increased.
For the Vintage 2025 projection period, the Bureau used data from its internal Benchmark Database to estimate the decline in immigration as january 2025 and produce a national total for 2026. This 2026 value will then be held constant for 2027 and 2028, according to the agency. This new approach prioritizes recent trends over historical static data.
Pro tip-Understanding the difference between “net migration” and “emigration” is key. Net migration is the difference between immigration and emigration.Emigration specifically refers to people *leaving* the U.S.
The estimates of non-U.S.-born emigration for migrants from Mexico and other Latin American countries were increased for the period ending June 30,2025. looking ahead to the 2026 projection period, the Bureau assumed that the 2025 estimate of emigration would double in 2026, and that level would then be held constant for 2027 and 2028. This significant increase reflects observed return migration patterns.
Why It Matters
These methodological changes reflect the increasing complexity of tracking population changes in the United States. International migration is a particularly challenging aspect of population change to measure and project, given the numerous influencing factors. By adapting its methods, the Census Bureau aims to provide more accurate and reliable population estimates, which are crucial for allocating federal funding, planning infrastructure, and understanding demographic trends. The shift away from a static projection model acknowledges that migration patterns are not fixed and require ongoing assessment.
Reader question-How might these revised population estimates impact the distribution of congressional seats following the 2030 census? What are your thoughts?
