“New Predictive Tool for Kidney Function Decline in Diabetics: MedUni Vienna Study Reveals Model for Timely Preventive Measures up to 5 Years in Advance – JAMA Network Open Publication”

2023-04-24 08:45:03

New tool can predict decline in kidney function

Vienna (OTS) – Around 40 percent of diabetics develop chronic kidney disease, which leads to a gradual deterioration up to the complete loss of kidney function. It has not been possible to predict whether and at what speed the kidney disease will progress. Early detection is essential in order to delay or avoid kidney failure requiring dialysis as far as possible. As part of an international research project led by MedUni Vienna, a model was developed that allows estimates to be made up to five years in advance, thus enabling timely preventive measures. The study results were recently published in the journal “JAMA Network Open”.

For their research, the team led by Rainer Oberbauer, Head of the Division of Nephrology and Dialysis at MedUni Vienna’s Department of Internal Medicine III, and Mariella Gregorich from MedUni Vienna’s Center for Medical Data Science used data from large international studies. In this way, 13 routinely collected baseline values ​​from 4,637 18- to 75-year-olds with type 2 diabetes and mildly to moderately impaired renal function could be included. In addition to the most important value for assessing kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR), e.g. B. Age, gender, body mass index, smoking habits, hemoglobin and cholesterol levels and medication intake selected as predictors. On this basis, the research team developed a prediction model that is based on proven statistical methods and is already being prepared for clinical use.

“The strength of our study compared to previous research on the subject lies not only in the refined methodology, but also in the large amount of data. This enables us to achieve a high degree of meaningfulness,” says first author Mariella Gregorich. “Accordingly, the prognosis model has proven to be reliable and is able to predict a decrease in kidney function based on the eGFR for up to five years after the initial value.” However, the study also showed that the individual course is also influenced by other, as yet unknown factors depends.

Early detection and therapy management
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the most common complications of diabetes and the leading cause of kidney failure requiring dialysis. Because CKD causes no symptoms in its early stages, it is often not recognized until the kidney function decline is well advanced. Kidney damage can be delayed or prevented by early detection and consistent therapy management, especially in diabetic metabolism and blood pressure control. Currently, kidney function in diabetics is essentially monitored by regularly measuring the eGFR. “Our prediction model can facilitate the continuous monitoring of the course of the disease and enable the identification of people with an increased risk of deterioration in kidney function in the next few years,” says study leader Rainer Oberbauer, emphasizing the great clinical relevance of the prediction tool. A web-adapted version of the model is already under construction and will be available shortly for further, independent validation: https://beatdkd.shinyapps.io/shiny/

Publikation: JAMA Network Open
Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Future Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in People With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease
Mariella Gregorich, Michael Kammer, Andreas Heinzel, Carsten Böger, Kai-Uwe Eckardt, Hiddo Lambers Heerspink, Bettina Jung, Gert Mayer, Heike Meiselbach, Matthias Schmid, Ulla T. Schultheiss, Georg Heinze, Rainer Oberbauer, for the BEAt-DKD Consortium
Author Affiliations Article Information
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.1870

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