Turkey’s newest drillship, Abdulhamid Hanis expected to leave the port of Mersin on Tuesday, August 9 to explore potential gas resources off the coast of Cyprus, at the risk of reopening hostilities in the eastern Mediterranean.
The boat recently purchased by Turkey from South Korea – named after the last absolute monarch of the Ottoman Empire – is the most powerful of the four Turkish exploration vessels operating in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. According to the Minister of Energy, Fatih Dönmez, he is one “of the five seventh generation ships in the world” and is able to drill up to “12,200 meters deep”.
Escalating tensions in 2020
These maneuvers are reminiscent of those that took place exactly two years ago in these same waters. On August 10, 2020, Ankara dispatched its ship there Oruc Reisescorted by five military ships, then causing an escalation of tensions, the sending of Rafale planes by France and the deployment of a common military presence associating Cyprus, Greece, France and Italy, etc.
“There is every reason to believe that these new explorations, seismic studies or drilling, will occur in the exclusive economic zone (ZEE) of Cyprus. The same causes producing the same effects, there will inevitably be a reaction from Cyprus, Greece, the European Union and perhaps also the United States,” predicts Francis Perrin, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
“No one can imprison our country”
The eastern Mediterranean has become a highly coveted region since the discovery of gas fields off Cyprus, Egypt, Israel and Gaza. The delimitation of sovereignty over the waters is, moreover, a source of historical dispute. In particular between Turkey and Greece, which has a few islets adjoining the Turkish coast, and between Cyprus and Turkey. This prevents agreements to delimit the contours of territorial waters, EEZs and continental shelves.
The Republic of Cyprus – which exercises its authority only over the Greek part of the island, which has been cut in two since 1974 – claims sovereignty at sea over the entire circumference of the island. To the great displeasure of Ankara, which judges that the rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized by Turkey alone, are thus flouted.
At the end of August 2021, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had been very clear: “We never succumb to piracy and banditry in the Mediterranean and the Aegean. No one can imprison our country having the longest coastline in the Mediterranean in the shores of Antalya. We are determined to defend to the end the rights of our people and of the Turkish Cypriots. »
Respond to the economic crisis
For political scientist Gilles Bertrand, the upcoming exploration campaign is first and foremost a domestic political maneuver in the run-up to the 2023 election. “Erdogan plans to divert attention from a disastrous economic situation, and make it appear that he is providing solutions to hyperinflation and soaring gas prices by going to the sea to find it”, he believes. In July, Turkey posted an inflation rate of 79% in one year – a figure that is greatly underestimated according to several economists.
The country, which is partly supplied by Russia, has so far announced the discovery of two deposits in the Black Sea in 2020 and 2021, and promised that this 100% Turkish gas would reach homes in 2023. “With these explorations in the Mediterranean, concludes the political scientist, Turkey will once again place itself as a disruptor in the international game and thereby ruin the credit it has just won with its role as mediator between Russia and Ukraine to allow the export of Ukrainian wheat. »