Covid infections are increasing, the number of deaths is growing. And it is also due to new variants that have “emerged” in Italy and that are responsible for this summer wave of cases. The last is the Xec variant. “The new variants have taken hold throughout Europe. The Italian data on those circulating are very lacking but nothing suggests that our situation is different from the European one”, says Pier Luigi Lopalco, professor of Hygiene at the University of Salento who comments to Adnkronos Salute on the data from the latest Covid bulletin in which both the cases and the deaths – this week 135 – are rising again, after a period in which the trend was decreasing or stable. “Unfortunately, it is a pity to still record such a high number of deaths. Some are inevitable during viral circulation, but I am sure that some deaths could have been avoided if people at risk had been vaccinated or treated correctly with antivirals”, concludes Lopalco.
INSIGHTS
It should be noted that Covid-19 does not follow normal seasonal patterns, like other respiratory viruses: waves of infection can occur at any time of the year. Summer waves correspond to peaks and hospital admissions.
Covid summer wave, infections and deaths increase. Experts warn: “Underestimated data, vaccines still important”
In one week, cases increase by over 10%
The cases of Covid-19 registered from 22 to 28 August in Italy rise to 15,221, with an increase of approximately 11% compared to the 13,690 of the previous week (but decreasing if compared to those of two weeks ago, considering that from 8 to 14 August the infections had been 16,299). In weekly deaths also increase, which were 135, compared to 99 from 15 to 21 August. This is indicated by the data from the weekly update on Covid-19 in Italy, published on the website of the Ministry of Health. The highest number of cases was recorded in Lombardy, with 2,562 infections between 22 and 28 August compared to 1,796 the previous week. Also in Lombardy were recorded about half of all deaths from Covid detected in the week in question, 66. Swabs also increased: from 22 to 28 August, 94,171 were performed compared to 72,266 in the previous survey. The positivity rate is 16.2%, compared to 18.9%.
New Xec variant
It was first reported in July. It is the result of the “combination” of two other different variants: KS.1.1 and KP.3.3. What suggests that Xec may be responsible for spikes in infections is the fact that initial observations have shown a notable growth advantage compared to the variants circulating so far, such as JN.1 which – together with its sublineages – represents the currently predominant variant in our country.
“Certainly the growing numbers of Covid, including deaths that in the last week have reached 135, are a cause for concern because we are in a period of the year in which the circulation of the virus has never been particularly significant,” Massimo Andreoni, scientific director of Simit, the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical Diseases and full professor at the Tor Vergata University of Rome, told Adnkronos Salute.
Covid, 135 deaths in the last week. Andreoni: «Vaccinate all those at risk»
“A change of direction is needed in view of the fall, the circulation of the virus will be more significant and the epidemiological situation is worrying because the vaccination campaign for Covid has not yet taken off”, he adds. “In light of these numbers, it therefore becomes essential that the Ministry of Health promote and organize a robust vaccination campaign to vaccinate the greatest number of high-risk subjects”, explains Andreoni.
For epidemiologist Massimo Ciccozzi, “everything is normal, this is the trend we have to get used to. The basis of the growing numbers is the increased movement of Italians and tourists in transit in our country. Those who leave or return from vacation do so by traveling by plane or train, consequently there is increased circulation of the virus. The only protection against contagion is the mask, which, unfortunately, no one wears anymore.”
“Fortunately the symptoms are less severe but – warns Ciccozzi – not for the elderly and frail who are more vulnerable and severely weakened by the heat and who must be protected”. The epidemiologist has no doubts: “In October it will be necessary to get a booster vaccination for Covid and influenza, especially for over 70s and frail people”, he concludes.
High diffusion capacity
«This increase observed in the numbers of the virus in Italy could be the effect of the latest Xec variant: It has a diffusion and immunoevasion capacity that appears to be high“, the analysis of virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco. The data, at least as far as the number of cases is concerned, “are certainly underestimated”. Many of these “are trivial, and there are perhaps also many asymptomatic people who maintain the chain of infections”.
“It is true – underlines the director of the School of Specialization in Hygiene and Preventive Medicine of the State University of Milan – that this is a pathology in most cases is trivial, that for a young person can be approached with anti-inflammatories. But we see it from the rising numbers of deaths, it is a problem for fragile people. The message is therefore for them and for the elderly: in the presence of respiratory forms, even dubious or nonspecific, do a swab anyway, at least for them, to be able to take antivirals. Today there is Paxlovid which avoids the most severe effects for fragile categories.
Carlo Ottaviano: «I am sick like Oliviero Toscani with cardiac amyloidosis, I live thanks to drugs»
These growing data, concludes Pregliasco, “also serve to remind us of the importance of the vaccination booster in the fall, always and above all for the elderly and the frail, both for the anti-Covid and the flu vaccine. Today, in short, is still the time for attention with respect to what may be risk situations. And, above all, let’s protect the frail”.