New Zealand First is polling at its highest levels since 1996, with recent aggregate data showing support above 11 percent. As the party launches its election campaign in Auckland, it is actively siphoning support from the National Party, which has slumped to 28.7 percent under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
Political Defections and the Rise of New Zealand First
The political landscape is shifting as voters move away from established parties to support New Zealand First. At the party’s annual conference in Auckland this weekend, members described a transition from long-standing loyalties to a new political home. One delegate told RNZ, Granddad was blue, dad was blue, I was blue until I woke up, reflecting the sentiment of former National supporters who now view the party as too weak in its policy approach.
Photo: Newsroom
This trend is supported by data from the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, which placed New Zealand First at 11.5 percent—the party’s third consecutive rise and its strongest result in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, National has hit its lowest support level since Christopher Luxon became leader, at 28.7 percent. Party leader Winston Peters attributes this migration to his party’s focus on nationalism, telling attendees, People are coming from other political parties and realising it’s one party now that’s critically needed.
Historical Polling Trends and the November 7 Election
As the November 7 election approaches, Newsroom reports that current polling aggregates place the party at just over 11 percent. This figure is two points higher than the party’s standing at this same stage in the 2017 election. Historically, New Zealand First has demonstrated a tendency to outperform its mid-campaign polling data by approximately two percentage points, suggesting the potential for a record showing.
Winston Peters: New Zealand First are for education, not indoctrination.
The party’s performance in 2026 is notable for its consistency. According to aggregate data, the first four months of this year were the strongest on record, surpassing even the surge seen in 1996. While the party reached a peak of 29 percent that year, it ultimately finished at 13.35 percent. Current data indicates that New Zealand First is consistently polling higher than in any other cycle since 1996, with the exception of 2017, when a late-campaign surge by the Labour Party saw New Zealand First’s support drop to 7.2 percent.
Party Strategy and Rhetoric in Auckland
“[We are] hobbled, stared down, cowered by the vested interests and the more powerful, voluminous parties who don’t want us to reflect what our fellow citizens feel in the hinterlands… Who don’t want us to reflect what garden variety Kiwis are apprehensive over, as they watch demographic engineering before their eyes.”
Photo: RNZ
Winston Peters emphasized the party’s readiness for the upcoming contest, describing the campaign as round 33—a nod to the party’s 33rd anniversary—and reaffirmed his commitment to the national interest, particularly regarding trade agreements.
Shifting Voter Allegiances and Future Uncertainties
The upcoming election presents a fluid environment where over half of surveyed voters indicate they could be persuaded to change their support. While New Zealand First is successfully capturing voters dissatisfied with National, it faces a new competitor for the middle-ground vote: the Opportunity party, which is nearing the 5 percent threshold.
Historically, New Zealand First’s path to Parliament has been volatile. In 2002, 2011, and 2014, late-campaign rallies were sufficient to earn the party between 3 and 5 percent of the vote, though these results left the party in opposition. Conversely, 2008 and 2020 remain the only years the party didn’t make it into Parliament. As Peters prepares to navigate the final 112 days of the campaign, his ability to retain the support of former National and Labour voters will determine whether he acts as a kingmaker or remains on the sidelines of the next government.
