Week 4 NFL Predictions: Model Backs Chargers, Bears & Reveals Top Picks
A sophisticated computer model has meticulously analyzed the Week 4 NFL schedule and locked in its picks, offering insights into potential upsets, spread covers, and outright winners. With a proven track record – exceeding $7,000 in profit for $100 bettors on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and currently riding a 39-19 run dating back to 2024 – this model provides a data-driven edge for football fans and bettors alike.
The model’s projections highlight several key matchups, including a clash of undefeated teams and a highly anticipated rivalry game. New users at DraftKings Sportsbook can capitalize on the action with a promo code offering $200 in bonus bets plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket, while FanDuel provides a $300 bonus bet offer for a $5 winning wager.
Key Week 4 NFL Matchups & Predictions
The Week 4 schedule is packed with compelling contests. The Eagles and Buccaneers will face off at 1 p.m. ET, representing the only matchup of unblemished squads this week. Later, at 4:25 p.m. ET, a showdown between two-time MVP quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will take center stage as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is currently favored by 2.5 points, despite Kansas City’s historical dominance in the series, having won six of the last seven meetings. Sunday Night Football will feature a fierce rivalry between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers, with Micah Parsons returning to Dallas for the first time since being traded. The Packers are favored by 6.5 points.
Model’s Top Picks: Chargers & Bears to Cover
One of the model’s strongest convictions is that the Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44) will cover the spread against the New York Giants in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The Chargers have started the season 3-0, with all victories coming within their division, and boast the longest active win streak in the regular season at six games. Quarterback Justin Herbert currently leads the NFL with 860 passing yards and is emerging as an MVP candidate, supported by a defense that has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league.
The Giants, in contrast, are winless and have struggled at home, posting a 1-9 record over the last two seasons. Quarterback Russell Wilson has lost seven consecutive regular season starts and has an equal number of turnovers (seven) as touchdown passes. New York’s defense is also underperforming, ranking in the bottom 10 in points allowed, yards allowed, third-down defense, and red-zone defense. The model predicts Los Angeles will prevail against the spread in over 50% of simulations.
Another confident pick from the model is that the Chicago Bears (+1.5, 47.5) will cover at Las Vegas. The Raiders appeared lackluster in their recent defeat to Washington, even with the Commanders missing Jayden Daniels. Las Vegas is struggling in the trenches, with Geno Smith being sacked 12 times – the second-most in the NFL – and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty averaging only 3.1 yards per carry.
The Bears, however, are coming off a win against Dallas where they didn’t allow Caleb Williams to be sacked and forced four turnovers. The Raiders have covered in only three of their last nine home games, and the Bears have won the last two matchups between the teams, including their previous visit to Las Vegas in 2021. The model forecasts the Under hitting in over 50% of simulations in addition to Chicago covering the spread, which it predicts will happen in almost 60% of simulations.
Additional Insights & Expert Picks
The model has analyzed every game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and identified four teams with a greater than 70% chance of winning, potentially offering a significant return for bettors.
To access the complete list of picks, including detailed analysis and predictions for every game, visit SportsLine. There, you’ll find the insights needed to make informed wagers and maximize your potential winnings.
