Nigeria’s Tinubu Faces First Major Test as ECOWAS Chairman
After being unanimously elected as the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in July, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu emphasized the need to promote democracy in a region plagued by coups. Tinubu stated that “we must not be toothless bulldogs” and that democracy is the best form of government.
However, less than a month into his term, Tinubu is facing his first major test. Following the coup in Niger on July 26, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum to the perpetrating junta, demanding the release of President Mohamed Bazoum and the restoration of order. Failure to comply would result in a full military intervention.
As the deadline passed on Sunday evening, the junta closed Niger’s airspace, indicating that they take ECOWAS’ threats seriously. While countries like Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal have endorsed Nigeria’s plan to intervene militarily in Niger, political support within ECOWAS is not uniform. Benin, for instance, has declined to send troops.
According to Ezenwa Olumba, a West African sub-region specialist at the UK’s Royal Holloway University, the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea, which are actively undermining ECOWAS plans, pose a more significant challenge. These military governments, which came into power through coups and are suspended from ECOWAS, consider any intervention by ECOWAS a “declaration of war” and have pledged support to Niger.
Olumba believes that Tinubu’s rush to issue an ultimatum to the military leaders in Niger without consulting Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso was a miscalculation. This misstep could potentially lead to a conflict involving Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea. Non-ECOWAS regional players, including Algeria and Chad, have also condemned Nigeria’s military intervention plan, citing the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Even within Nigeria, some voices dissent. The largest opposition coalition criticized the military action as “pointless and irresponsible.” Politicians in northern Nigeria have raised concerns about the ongoing conflict with jihadist violence in the region, questioning whether the country can afford to tackle Niger militarily.
While Nigeria possesses the military power within ECOWAS and is the driving force behind a possible intervention in Niger, it remains to be seen if Tinubu can muster the necessary political will. The endorsement of the coup by Russia and its veto power on the UN Security Council could prevent West African countries from obtaining a legal mandate for military action, unlike in 2017 when ECOWAS intervened in the Gambia.
ECOWAS has announced that it will reconvene on Thursday to discuss its next steps. For now, Nigeria seems blocked from pursuing a military solution. Dr. Vines, Director of the Africa Programme at Chatham House, suggests that the primary objective is for sanctions and other targeted measures to compel the military to restore constitutional rule, thus avoiding military intervention immediately.
Tinubu, known for his determination and unwillingness to back down, faces the risk of losing credibility if he were to back down now. His strong investment in resolving the situation and threatening intervention may make it difficult for him to retreat.
This developing situation highlights the challenges faced by ECOWAS in promoting democracy and resolving political crises in the West African region.