2023-12-03 02:47:47
The most pessimistic voices predicted a major setback for the real estate sector in 2023, with a collapse in both sales and prices. There were no shortage of ingredients for this: depletion of savings, persistent inflation, an entrenched armed conflict, increases in rates… But although the cooling has reached sales and mortgages – although neither one nor the other has collapsed and will end the year with very good data -, the great adjustment in prices has not occurred. Demand has remained strong because employment is resilient and supply has not been enough, in many cases, to cover it. A situation that, in general terms, the market consensus of the sector consulted by LA RAZÓN, believes that it will continue in 2024.
Pelayo Barroso, national director of Savills Research
«The trend in new construction prices will continue to increase given the limited supply. We think that they will grow around 5% throughout 2024. In the case of the second-hand market, the situation is very heterogeneous. In general, prices will tend to remain stable or fall slightly (3%-7%) in areas where the product is more abundant and demand has less access to the mortgage market.
Ernesto Ferrer-Bonsoms, business director of Solvia
«Despite the current economic instability, marked by persistent inflation and high interest rates, we believe that 2024 will continue to be a dynamic year in the number of real estate transactions, thus continuing on the path of stabilization of the sector that began this year. Thus, there will be a reduction in the number of transactions of between 5% and 8% compared to 2023, as a consequence of this increase in interest rates and the lack of supply, but maintaining a very positive volume in global terms. However, this reduction in the number of transactions will not be reflected in prices due to this lack of supply, since they will continue to remain stable with advances similar to those we already project for 2023, of between 1.5% and 2. 5%”.
Miguel Ángel Gómez Huecas, president of Fadei
The real estate employers’ association assures that in some areas prices are too high and should drop by at least 10%. However, it is expected that the average price will rise by up to 3%, which will generate more difficulties for a part of the population when buying a home in some areas. “Banks are granting mortgages for 80% of the value of the home, amounts that are insufficient for the majority of potential buyers,” as its president, Miguel Ángel Gómez Huecas, lamented this week.
Ferrán Font, Head of Studies at Pisos.com
This portal estimates that the upward curve will be less pronounced, with a rebound of 1%-2%. “Significant drops are not going to come, especially with the upward path of rates stagnant,” argues Font. The stability of the first-line markets, he adds, contrasts with the possible decline in other secondary locations: «The trend of demand towards urban concentration will keep the pulse in the main capitals, where only homes that leave aside rehabilitation “They could be adjusted,” he estimates.
Idealistic
The portal considers in its latest forecasts that “with active demand, a growing number of homes and a decreasing supply, price tensions will continue to increase in 2024 in the most dynamic markets, while in the rest we may witness a stabilization or slight falls.
María Matos, Head of Studies and spokesperson for Fotocasa
«It must be taken into account that our market is very heterogeneous, but from the first quarter of 2024 we could begin to see downward fluctuations in some communities with lower demand and less tourist attraction, due to the interannual comparison of high variations presented in 2023, but it will be necessary to put into context that they will not be price drops as such, since after the anomalous increases, the price will simply be returning to the starting place. “We do not believe that the decreases are significant.”
Teresa Mazo, CEO of Elix
«The outlook indicates that prices will remain at current levels since demand remains uncovered by a still scarce supply. Despite this, we do believe that we could find ourselves facing the preamble to a slowdown in prices that, sooner or later, will end up adjusting.
Cristina Arias, director of the Tinsa Studies Service
«In the short term, the aggregate indicators to date continue to point towards a gradual reestablishment of average (and healthy) levels of residential demand after the period of maximums that occurred in 2022 and a trend towards stabilization of prices. “This evolution is supported by the resilience of employment and the restoration of household purchasing power as inflation moderates.”
Hector Serrat, CEO of Via Celere
«Despite the existing brakes on possible home purchases, such as rate increases, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain a differential factor when determining the price. For this reason, we expect prices to remain stable in most of the country, even with slight increases in the main cities, such as Madrid, Valencia, Seville or Malaga, driven by the limited supply there.
Appraisal Society
«A general trend towards stabilization is expected, with increasingly moderate price increases. Like real estate activity, differences are expected by segment. In the case of used housing, greater price negotiations are expected, with some downward adjustments, except for quality products; “New housing will resist better due to the relative scarcity of finished product and sustained demand.”
Juan Moreno, real estate sector analyst at Bankinter
«Prices should tend to stagnate and could even fall slightly (we estimate -2%). However, if this correction occurs it will be temporary due to the high interest rate environment. From 2025 they should return to the path of growth (+1% estimated), with the Euribor moderating and supported by solid fundamentals: accessibility ratios at historical averages, balanced supply and demand and more prudent mortgage financing.
Sharpen
«The trend in new housing prices for 2024 will not have major variations and will adjust to the rise in the CPI, especially in large cities, due, on the one hand, to the lack of supply and, on the other, to “that employment is showing great strength.”
Sandra Daza, general director of Gesvalt
«Everything seems to indicate that in 2024 there will be a general adjustment in housing prices, although it has not yet been appreciated, perhaps due to a certain reluctance to recognize the slowdown in demand on the part of sellers. But this adjustment will not be the same throughout Spain, it will be focused on those cities where the residential market is less stressed. Likewise, it will be necessary to assess how investment activity may evolve, since the rise in interest rates could reduce margins and, therefore, also reduce demand for residential assets. Overall, we expect a decrease in housing prices, which will be slight overall and uneven. In fact, we could observe cities like Madrid, Malaga or Seville where there are no declines, although there is a stabilization of them.
donpiso
The average house price will drop by 5% in 2024, mainly due to the “sharp” drop in demand for home purchases that will be recorded in the first half of the year, according to the forecasts of this real estate agency.
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