2023-11-04 17:30:08
On September 19, 2022, in Dollow, Somalia, people are fleeing the worst drought in living memory, a consequence of climate change.
Professor at HEC, political scientist and researcher, main author of the IPCC and specialist in environmental geopolitics, François Gemenne hosts a seminar on planetary issues. Teacher at Sciences Po Paris and director of the Hugo Observatory dedicated to environmental issues at the University of Liège (Belgium), he is the author of several works, including Ecology is not a consensus. Overcome the outrage (Fayard, 2022).
Is it possible to define the regions of the world most vulnerable to the effects of climate change?
It is necessary to differentiate between risk mapping and vulnerability mapping. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) establishes risks linked to physical phenomena, but vulnerability also depends in part on policies. It therefore varies greatly depending on a country’s level of preparation and capacity to adapt. Daniel, the recent « medicane » [cyclone de type méditerranéen] which ravaged Libya on September 12, 2023, would not have caused so many deaths in a state better equipped or administered differently. Private organizations make rankings, but the IPCC does not make judgments on this. The only thing we can be sure of is that no part of the world will be spared.
This article is taken from “Special Edition Le Monde – 40 maps to understand a fractured world”2023. This special issue is on sale at newsstands or online by going to our store website.
Will developing countries be more impacted than rich countries?
As a general rule, more developed states have stronger buildings, social and economic structures. But it would be too simplistic to analyze things that way. The imperative is to broaden the focus while looking more closely at the local situation, the level of preparation, the administration, the capacity for resilience… An extreme event can cross an area without incident, while a small event climate can lead to a cascade of consequences by affecting hotspots such as energy systems.
It is the notion of “threshold of social breakdown” that the IPCC introduced in his latest report devaluation. And this question does not necessarily depend on the level of development. In November 2007, Category 5 Cyclone Sidr crossed Bangladesh, killing several thousand people. In May 2008, another equally powerful cyclone, Nargis, swept through Burma, causing more than 80,000 deaths. Burma is, however, richer.
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