“Noboa has reached young people with the videos of his influencer wife on TikTok and Instagram”

2023-08-22 06:04:07

Why has Daniel Noboa achieved second place in an unexpected way?

The big surprise has been that of Noboa. The whole country thought that the issue of security was going to be decisive, and on that issue the one who was best positioned was Jan Topic and also Christian Zurita as Fernando Villavicencio’s replacement due to the emotional effect of the murder. However, a candidate has appeared who had not had the issue of security as the main axis, although he included it in his program. In his network messages, Noboa talked a lot about the issue of employment. The strategy of Noboa and his team was to raise the issue as follows: there is no security without employment. According to Noboa’s strategists, those who suffer the most from insecurity are those who have something to lose, some property or patrimony, but what most Ecuadorians need is work. That is why what he offers is secure employment, which was the motto of his messages on his social networks. He was also helped by his role in the debate between candidates, where he was perceived as the freshest figure, since in the first part of the campaign he had hardly appeared, so no one had attacked or criticized him. Another factor that has not been highlighted is the role of her wife, a TikTok and Instagram influencer that has allowed her to reach young people who follow her on social networks. There are videos of his that have almost a million and a half views.

Does the correísta candidate, Luis González, have more options in the second round?

It has been the other surprise of the elections. Luis González did not have the downturn that was predicted. That fall was recovered although he was not enough to win in the first round, even so he was not far from achieving it. This confirms that correísmo is a very important force and that it has a great organization; However, it remains to be seen if he manages to overcome that ceiling and capture the votes of the anticorreísmo. It was expected that the results would be more adverse for correísmo, but this was not the case. The big losers, those who had a very low vote and it was thought that they would do better, are Oto Sonnenholzner and Yaku Pérez.

What is the voter profile that supports each candidate?

Noboa, despite being a billionaire, has his base in popular and youth sectors, and also in indigenous sectors, which is where he obtained the most votes. Luisa González has her base in middle class people where there is a mixture of people who rose to the middle class during the economic boom of correísmo and people who worked for the State. Correa created a very large bureaucracy, very similar to that of the Kirchners in Argentina. That middle and lower middle class that were bureaucrats are part of correísmo, voters who think that life was much better under correísmo. Instead, Noboa captured the vote of his father, who, being a billionaire, was the most populist of all, gave away mattresses and food, sold the dream of a successful millionaire. Now, at this moment, it is very likely that the middle class and the upper class will vote for Noboa because that is the anti-correista vote. Noboa is going to capture that vote without declaring himself anti-correísmo, he has been very careful not to get into the fight against correísmo.