SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Tuesday fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern sea, the South Korean military said, as the country continued its weapons demonstrations hours before the U.S. presidential election.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missiles flew about 250 miles but did not specify how many were fired. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said they landed in waters outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone and there were no immediate reports of damage.
The launches came days after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised a flight test of the country’s newest intercontinental ballistic missile designed to reach the U.S. mainland. In response to that launch, the United States flew a long-range B-1B bomber in a trilateral drill with South Korea and Japan on Sunday in a show of force. That drew condemnation from Kim’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, who on Tuesday accused North Korea’s rivals of raising tensions with “aggressive and adventuristic military threats.”
South Korean officials had said that North Korea was likely to dial up its military displays around the U.S. presidential election to command the attention of Washington. South Korea’s military intelligence agency said last week that North Korea has also most likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test.
Outside officials and analysts say North Korea eventually hopes to use an expanded nuclear arsenal as leverage to win concessions such as sanctions relief after a new U.S. president is elected.
There are widespread views that Kim Jong Un would prefer a win by Republican candidate Donald Trump, with whom he engaged in high-stakes nuclear diplomacy in 2018-19, seeing him as a more likely counterpart to give him what he wants than Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. During campaigning, Harris said she would not “cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong Un who are rooting for Trump.”
Tensions between the Koreas are at their highest point in years as Kim has repeatedly flaunted his expanding nuclear weapon and missile programs, while reportedly providing Russia with munitions and troops to support President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
On Monday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters that as many as 10,000 North Korean soldiers were in Russia’s Kursk region near Ukraine’s border and were preparing to join Moscow’s fight against Ukraine in the coming days. If they engage in combat, it would be North Korea’s first participation in a large-scale conflict since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
After a meeting in Seoul on Monday, senior South Korean and European Union officials expressed concerns about Russia’s possible transfer of technology to North Korea to enhance its nuclear program in exchange for its troops. Such transfers would “jeopardize the international non-proliferation efforts and threaten peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and across the globe,” they said.
In response to North Korea’s growing nuclear threat, South Korea, the United States and Japan have been expanding their combined military exercises and updating their nuclear deterrence plans built around U.S. strategic assets.
North Korea has portrayed the joint military drills by its rivals as rehearsals for an invasion and used them to justify its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons and missiles.
At a U.N. Security Council meeting Monday, North Korea’s ambassador, Kim Song, defended the North’s nuclear and ICBM programs as essential for the country’s self-defense and a necessary response to what it perceives as nuclear threats from the United States. He stressed that North Korea would accelerate the build-up of “our nuclear force that can counter any threat presented by hostile nuclear weapon states.”
U.S. Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood warned that the U.S. cannot stand back from North Korea’s expanding nuclear program and the growing threat to U.S. security “without a response.”
Wood also repeated last week’s call for Russia to say whether there are North Korean troops on the ground in Russia. “We’re not in a court here,” Russian Deputy Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva replied, “and the questions of the United States, in the spirit of an interrogation, is not something I intend to answer.”
Interview between Time.news Editor and North Korea Expert
Editor: Welcome, Dr. Lee, and thank you for joining us today. Recently, North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles just hours before the U.S. presidential election. Can you provide us with some insights on what might have motivated this display?
Dr. Lee: Thank you for having me. North Korea’s missile launches are often timed to maximize attention, and in this case, it’s evidently aimed at Washington as the U.S. heads into a significant election. South Korean military intelligence indicated that North Korea typically amplifies its military demonstrations during U.S. election cycles, signaling its intent to influence U.S. foreign policy.
Editor: Interesting! You mentioned influencing U.S. foreign policy. How might North Korea leverage these actions in light of the election outcomes?
Dr. Lee: Absolutely. North Korea’s weapons tests, including the recent ballistic missile launches and preparations for potentially a seventh nuclear test, serve as a form of bargaining chip. The expectation is that whoever wins the presidential election will have to address these escalations. Analysts suggest that Kim Jong Un would prefer Donald Trump to win due to their earlier negotiations, which he deemed more favorable compared to Kamala Harris’s approach, which openly rejects engagement with “tyrants.”
Editor: That raises an important question. What does the North Korean regime gain from aligning with one candidate over another in line with their military provocations?
Dr. Lee: Kim Jong Un seeks sanctions relief and international recognition, traditionally using his nuclear arsenal as a bargaining tool for such concessions. Pyongyang believes that a more favorable U.S. administration can be coaxed into negotiations, and engaging with Trump might yield more favorable outcomes based on their previous interactions. Harris’s criticism of Kim suggests a firmer stance that North Korea would likely find less advantageous.
Editor: Changing topics slightly, we’re seeing heightened military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, especially against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict. What implications does this have for regional and global security?
Dr. Lee: This cooperation presents significant concerns. The reported deployment of North Korean soldiers to support Russia highlights a strategic partnership potentially detrimental not just regionally but globally. If North Korean troops engage directly, it would mark their first major conflict involvement since the Korean War. Furthermore, the transfer of military technology between Russia and North Korea could enhance missile and nuclear capabilities, exacerbating the threat to the region and complicating U.S. security strategies.
Editor: Given these developments, what is the outlook for peace on the Korean Peninsula in the immediate future?
Dr. Lee: The outlook remains grim. As Kim Jong Un continues to bolster his military programs and engages in this alliance with Russia, tensions will likely rise. South Korea’s military is on high alert, and if North Korea proceeds with further nuclear tests or missile launches, it could prompt a more aggressive response from the U.S. and its allies, potentially triggering an arms race in the region. The incoming U.S. administration will have to navigate this treacherous landscape carefully.
Editor: Lastly, if you had to summarize North Korea’s strategy in the face of these complex dynamics, what would it be?
Dr. Lee: North Korea’s strategy is one of assertion through intimidation. They aim to demonstrate military prowess while seeking attention and legitimacy on the international stage, all while hoping to extract valuable concessions amid U.S. political changes. The interplay between their military ambitions and the reactions of global powers creates a precarious situation that calls for astute diplomatic efforts.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Lee, for your insights. It’s clear that the coming weeks and months will be critical for both the Korean Peninsula and U.S. foreign policy.
Dr. Lee: Thank you for having me. Let’s hope for a peaceful resolution amidst these challenges.