2024-07-07 12:00:53
“The essence of the new treaty between North Korea and Russia is beyond the paper (signature). Russia has nothing to gain from North Korea other than ammunition, so it will not be a real ally.”
In an interview with the Dong-A Ilbo held at his Tokyo University lab on the 4th, Yu Koizumi (小泉悠, 42), a Japanese expert on Russian military security and a professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo’s Center for Advanced Science and Technology, interpreted the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement” signed between North Korea and Russia last month as a marriage registration with “different dreams” with an uncertain future. Having worked as a specialist analyst at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a visiting researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, he has been recognized for his expertise in the Japanese media and academia since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
He sees the alliance as marriage, and he likened it to “a legal marriage is established with one sheet of paper, but whether we become a good couple or fight and get divorced is determined as we live our lives.” In a press conference, President Putin even said the year of the North Korea-Russia treaty (1961) was 1962, as if it was intentional, and a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “We are not trying to create a military alliance,” revealing a difference of opinion with North Korea. This passage is interpreted as suggesting that Russia’s will was weak from the beginning.
Professor Koizumi said about this, “The North Korea-Russia treaty only contains principles,” and predicted, “How to put it into practice, how often to meet and share secrets, how to share weapons and conduct military training, etc. are important issues to consider in the future. However, North Korea-Russia relations will not be elevated to the level of the US-Japan alliance or the South Korea-US alliance.”
He analyzed that the reason Russia signed this agreement despite its weak will to strengthen relations with North Korea is because “the only thing it can give North Korea right now is to sign a treaty.” North Korea served as a solid “supply base” by supplying Russia with nearly 5 million rounds of ammunition last year. However, Russia is having difficulty giving North Korea the gifts it wants, such as oil and the introduction of North Korean workers, due to UN sanctions. His interpretation is that “Russia, which has to give and take, can most easily and reliably offer a treaty signed by President Putin.”
Professor Koizumi said, “(Regarding the successive summits between China and Russia) they share the same goal of dismantling the U.S.-centered order, but the relationships between China and Russia, North Korea and China, and North Korea and Russia are each entangled in tension and conflict,” and he viewed the possibility of establishing strong military cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia as low.
In response to the expansion of cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia, he explained, “It is a realistic way for Japan and South Korea to cooperate in order to increase the reliability of the US’s extended deterrence.” His interpretation is that “if South Korea, which is important for deterrence against North Korea, and Japan, which focuses on deterrence against China, coordinate their interests, it will be an ‘optimized deterrence’ for the US.”
Tokyo = Correspondent Lee Sang-hoon [email protected]
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2024-07-07 12:00:53