The campaign we are experiencing is the duel between nostalgia and uncertainty. The PP works on the memory of well-being and tranquility of the past popular governments in the face of the black future of Sanchismo. While Feijóo’s plan is clear, the left promises an uncertain and unattractive future. Let’s review.
Irene Montero is sinking Podemos, and this could be fatal for possible left-wing coalition governments after 28-M. Her arrogance and cockiness in the face of her legislative failure is unacceptable to many feminists, and it’s only getting worse. The threat to whom she yelled that being a woman is not a feeling is proof of the minister’s deification and her traces of tyranny. The result is that it will not reach 5 percent in many places and, therefore, it will not have access to the regional parliaments. They will be votes thrown into the bonfire of the vanities of Irene Montero.
Nothing that Podemos does in the rest of the issues will serve to come back. The “trans” issue subtracts votes in all electoral segments without exception. His position on the war in Ukraine, moreover, is flawed. Nobody thinks that they are pacifists, but allies of Putin. Defending peace in exchange for territories is legitimizing the bloodshed caused by the invader, and opening the door to new aggressions.
The increase in the minimum wage will not help Podemos either because Montero and Belarra cannot stand Yolanda Díaz and, therefore, they are not going to make it profitable. In addition, the belief, clearly true, that it is still Pablo Iglesias who is pulling the strings is a drag on his coalition. Lots of female empowerment but it’s still the alpha male who rules. This popular perception is indelible.
The lost vote of Podemos will go to the PSOE, as happened in Andalusia, and to the abstention. Here is the key, in the capacity of the left to add a majority with its parties and the various nationalists and regionalists. The PP can only look to its right, to Vox. They are two very obvious blocks that clarify to the voter why he deposits his vote. On this occasion there will be no floating parties, such as Cs, that can agree to the left and right.
This scenario will be present especially in the Valencian Community and Andalusia. In Valencia, according to the latest polls, the victory would go to María José Catalá, of the PP, whose councilors added to those of Vox would displace Compromís and the PSPV. In Alicante and Castellón the PP will win. Now, the issue is whether the “Botanical Agreement” will go down in history and the autonomous government will return to the Popular Party. If Carlos Mazón gets the Generalitat, the PSOE will be very touched.
This change is possible thanks to the collapse of Cs, once very strong in Valencia, whose vote goes mainly to the PP. True, but we must not forget that the general spirit of change and the nostalgic discourse, a “before (of the left) we lived better”, is driving the popular. The PP has chosen to appeal to the loss of prosperity and tranquility with Sanchismo and its partners. Memory can betray, but the daily news is devastating for the left and they agree with the story of the PP.
Hofer defined nostalgia as a “painful desire to return”, and that is what the PP is playing at. That feeling is a refuge when the present is chaotic and the perspective is pessimistic, like the current one. Its political utility is in the selection of the facts that make up the past; for example, the economic prosperity with the PP, and the affectionate memory of its protagonists. This makes the popular ones a refuge option, of consolation even for non-Sanchista socialists. That is why the PSOE is with the rattle of Bárcenas and Rato, to dismantle the political effect of the nostalgia that the PP is mobilizing. At the moment, it works for Feijóo.