The country no longer seems capable of exercising leadership as with Merkel. And hesitation about sending arms to Ukraine provokes criticism from allies, at home and in NATO
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
BERLINO — Olaf Scholz does not speak. He whispers. It often happens that in telephone calls with European colleagues, they have to ask the Chancellor to repeat what he has just said. It is a detail. But that seems to plastically convey the caution and the stealthy step that are the character of the German leader.
Which obviously does not rule out surprises. Yesterday morning, for example, in the Bundestagin the debate on the financial law, Scholz got his voice and claws out. The leader of the Christian-Democratic opposition, Friedrich Merz, had stoned him accusing him of hesitating over arms to Ukraine, undermining Germany’s credibility. Undaunted, the chancellor replied with a flurry of data and facts on supplies to Kievincluding that of a state-of-the-art anti-aircraft system, but above all with an unprecedented rhetorical emotionality: “You go around the thing, but you never say anything concrete”.
A speech under the dome by Norman Foster does not make spring. And the perception that Olaf Scholz is troubled by the challenges of his office emerges above all in Europe, where Germany does not seem able at the moment to exercise the leadership that was its own in Angela Merkel’s long season.
The last European Council offered proof of this. Chancellor it played no part in forging the final compromise, which overcame the opposition of the Hungarian Orbán, allowing the EU to adopt the sixth package of sanctions against Moscow, centered on the blockade of oil imports. Indeed, it took Mario Draghi (“What is your problem?”) To unearth the ambiguity, given that Germany wanted to take advantage of the exemptions granted in Budapest and Prague with the Druzhba pipeline.
Where do Olaf Scholz’s difficulties arise? Is it just a question of a character, also evident, and of (still) little confidence with the gravitas of the chancellery? That is, are structural problems internal to your party and the coalition and wider geopolitical dynamics at work?
“Scholz more than shy seems to me stammering, insecure – says a European diplomat – it is as if he were still Minister of Finance, but Merkel is no longer above him”. Furthermore, “He must manage with a very heterogeneous coalition”. One of the signs is that in Brussels the German position on the various dossiers is not always legible as before, “as if the instructions from Berlin are no longer so clear”. Not all are so peremptory: «We were used – is the opinion of an ambassador who attended the Brussels summit – to the role of a more leading Germany. Scholz needs time. Even Merkel at first took a while to emerge. I am convinced that in the distance it will come out ».
“Scholz’s caution is well known. Man is like that – explains Christoph von Marschall, one of the most listened to German commentators – but I also believe that there is a bit of exaggeration in the criticisms. When Scholz says that Ukraine must not lose, instead of saying that Ukraine must win, it is not just a semantic problem, it gives an impression of lack of determination. But now he seems to have understood that he must communicate better, offer public opinion more sense of perspective. There is no doubt that the SPD, his party, also weighs on his prudence, where there is still a pacifist majority and a great nostalgia for Ostpolitik and the relationship with Moscow, which however is now unrealistic. We must remember that Putin’s Russia is an expansionist power, not like the Soviet Union, which was the power of the status quo “. A problem for Scholz are also the Green allies, at the moment on a more exposed line in favor of Kiev, but who “must be careful of the traditional basis”.
Beyond internal balances, there is a larger German question that complicates Olaf Scholz’s life. Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine has denied the countries that had believed in dialogue with Moscow, not only Germany, but also Italy, France, Spain. «Whether in the EU or in NATO, the Poles and the Baltics are always reproaching us: we warned you about Putin’s intentions. Our rating in the geopolitical analysis has dropped to zero ”, the ambassador jokes. But it is Berlin that has committed the biggest mistakes and the biggest accusations are made against it, especially from Warsaw, reinforced by the apparent slowness with which it supplies arms to Kiev. And it is from Berlin that the desire to emancipate increases in those countries: “Germany found itself on the wrong side of history: we no longer need German protection,” says a Central European diplomat.
“But really Are Poland and the Baltics amazed that Germany is not doing more militarily? They know our history and their history too well to be, ”says von Marschall. And he adds: «In terms of economic aid, Scholz is doing an excellent job, at least as much as Merkel. I have the impression that the attacks are rather related to expectations, which when it comes to Germany are very high. But this suggests that Berlin still plays a leading role ».
It is an optimistic analysis. “There is no doubt – explains the European diplomat – that a country like Poland will emerge strengthened from this crisis and will try to make the most of the fact that it was right. For Germany it will be a complicated recovery, also because the United States will focus a lot on Warsaw ». Will Olaf Scholz, the man who whispers on the phone, rise to this challenge?
June 1, 2022 (change June 1, 2022 | 20:41)
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