2024-04-29 15:14:46
Beijing: The standoff between many of the world’s major military powers is creating a significant risk of geopolitical instability throughout West Asia and Asia. On one hand, Israel and Iran are launching missile attacks on each other in the Gulf. On the other hand, in South Asia, India and Pakistan are engaged in a rocket arms race. For the first time since the Cold War, the US has deployed intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the Philippines. Along with this, the conflict in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea has created a dangerous series of possible nuclear conflicts.
South China Morning Post, India has also tested Agni-5 missile. According to the Federation of American Scientists think tank, the March 11 test of the MIRV variant of the Agni-5 is seen as a response to China’s earlier deployment of the MIRV-capable DF-5 ICBM. Pakistan first test-fired its MIRV-capable Ababil medium-range ballistic missile in 2017. It is now taking delivery of Hangar-class submarines, which are believed to be capable of carrying Babur-3 nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
Israel’s conflict with Iran
Israel denies having a nuclear arsenal but is believed to either possess MIRV technology or to be developing it. Israel launched its latest German-made submarine in August last year. These submarines are capable of carrying nuclear-armed missiles. In such a situation, Israel will currently become the only nuclear power in the Middle East. Its rival Iran is known as a nuclear threshold state because it has the capability to produce weapons.
America and Russia are investing money in modernizing their nuclear arsenals. China’s military is also engaged in expanding and upgrading its capabilities. Wan, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, emphasized that it is difficult to separate regional developments in Asia from the global military buildup of recent years. For example, India’s Agni-5 MIRV test was widely seen by analysts as a response to the recent Chinese deployment. He said that we have seen in the Ukraine war that Russia is using ballistic missiles purchased from North Korea.
Emphasis on increasing weapons
The US and Russia combined possess about 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia has about 5,580 and the US has 5,044, including weapons held in reserve. The treaty, known as New START, entered into force in 2011 and limits each country to deploying a maximum of 1,550 strategic warheads, with additional restrictions on ICBMs and bombers. With the treaty likely to expire in 2026, fears of a new nuclear arms race are rising.
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Russia suspended its participation in the new treaty in February last year, citing US support for Ukraine. In November it also withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, raising the possibility of future weapons tests. Wan says the guardrails are being removed to avoid the risk of nuclear war and an arms race. The US think tank estimates that China currently has about 500 nuclear weapons, with these expected to double by 2030.
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It is estimated that India has 164 and Pakistan has 170 nuclear weapons, while Israel has 90 weapons. Experts estimate that North Korea has collected about 40 or 50 weapons. Researcher Rostkar has said that the creation of nuclear weapons poses a threat of instability everywhere. Today we are in a much more complex world than in the Cold War. At that time the nuclear race was limited to two superpowers but this is not the case now.