Obos prices last month rose more sharply than the historical average for March. At the same time, the housing developer expects a stronger price trend than normal throughout the autumn.
Photo: Dan P. Neegaard / Aftenposten Published:
2. april
Updated April 2
Prices for used OBOS homes in Oslo rose 2.3 per cent from February to March this year. Nationally, prices rose by two percent. This is shown by recent figures from the housing developer.
– OBOS prices tend to rise in March, and they did so this year as well. The increase was stronger than the historical average for March. We can thus state that 2024 has started with significant growth in house prices. We expected prices to rise, but an increase of 7.7 per cent so far this year in the capital and 7.8 per cent nationally was more than expected – given the many interest rate jumps we have had, says chief economist Sissel Monsvold at OBOS.
She believes that the low supply of new homes may have contributed to increased demand in the second-hand market. She also points to the change in sentiment that came after Norges Bank signaled that the interest rate peak had probably been reached.
It is in the capital that Obos has the largest catchment area with around 25 per cent of the market.
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From January to February, the prices of used Obos homes in Oslo rose by 1.6 per cent. Nationally, prices rose by 1.4 per cent. The price per square meter of used Obos homes was NOK 78,376 in Oslo, while nationally it was NOK 67,788 in February.
The month before, in January, prices increased by 3.6 per cent in Oslo and 4.2 per cent nationally.
Awaiting price increase
Over the past twelve months, prices in Oslo have risen by 1.8 per cent, while nationally they have risen by 2.3 per cent.
The price per square meter for used OBOS homes was NOK 80,186 in Oslo in March, and NOK 69,149 nationwide.
Fewer OBOS homes were sold in March this year than in March 2023, which must be seen in light of the fact that Easter this year was in this month, writes Obos. But activity was also lower than in March 2018, which was the last time much of Easter fell in March.
Chief economist Sissel Monsvold in OBOS. Photo: Hans Fredrik Asbjørnsen / Info Marked Member
The housing developer points to several factors that suggest that house prices will rise further this year.
– We can expect one or two interest rate cuts, real wage growth and a good labor market. At the same time, several households believe that house prices will rise in the future. How strong the price increase will be will depend on the housing supply. The wild card is whether there will be a large spring release of second-hand homes. This may slow down price growth until the summer. Beyond the autumn, we think the price trend will be stronger than normal. This means that prices will rise seasonally, at least if the first interest rate cut comes in September, says chief economist Sissel Monsvold.
I don’t think the housing party will continue
Obos prices come as usual ahead of the release of figures for the wider market.
Eiendom Norge presents house price statistics for March on Thursday at 10.00. In February, house prices rose 1.4 per cent, with a seasonally adjusted growth of 0.7 per cent. In January, they rose by 3.4 per cent, and 0.7 per cent seasonally adjusted.
Chief economist Kjersti Haugland at DNB Markets told E24 on Monday that she expects the upswing we have seen earlier this year to slow down.
She believes that the level of interest rates – which economists believe has reached the ceiling – is now actually beginning to be felt in most people’s wallets.
– This affects the bidding rounds somewhat and dictates how far people go, says Haugland, but adds:
– There are forces pulling in the opposite direction as well, while the supply side has been tight. New home sales have been down for a long time and this has helped to keep up house price growth, together with a very good labor market, the chief economist states.
House prices in Norway rose through the first part of 2023, before the trend turned downward in the autumn. Last year ended overall with an increase of 0.5 per cent. It was thus the weakest year since 2017.
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