2024-05-07 08:57:29
At a time when we are witnessing an increase in coups d’état in Africa, is the suspension of public development assistance still being used to put pressure on the putschists? This is the question that Coface asked itself. The answer varies greatly from one era to another.
The researchers of the French insurance company for foreign trade (Coface) started from a widely shared observation: everywhere in the world, political risk is increasing sharply. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that, along with climate risk, it is today one of the most powerful obstacles to economic recovery. The war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, bear witness to this.
In Africa, this risk is manifested above all by the resurgence of coups d’état. There was the Niger and the Gabon in 2023, the Burkinathe Mali or even the Guinea the previous years. This seizure of power by force is not a really new phenomenon on the African continent. It has even been very widespread since independence. 44% of coups d’état recorded in the world since 1950 took place in Africa, Coface tells us. In this region where official development assistance (ODA) still plays a determining economic role, the authors of the study looked at how ODA flows evolved before and after coups d’état using figures from 30 countries. donors monitored by the OECD.
Read alsoAfrica: these coups that have shaken the continent for three years
The balance of the Cold War
During the Cold War, the suspension of aid was far from being an automatic sanction. Between 1950 and 1989, the year the Berlin Wall fell, aid decreased only half the time after a coup d’état. In a world dominated by two antagonistic camps, the West on one side, the Soviet bloc on the other, donors are careful not to compromise their influence by suddenly turning off the tap. They therefore measure the suspension of public aid parsimoniously.
On the other hand, from 1990, Western countries no longer have the same preventions. Between 1990 and 2010, aid was suspended in 76% of cases the year following a coup d’état. There Gambia and the Ivory Coast will pay the price. It is also true that this is a period when the seizure of power by force is clearly decreasing in Africa. The time has come for the democratization of regimes. And African regional organizations, such as the African Union or ECOWAS, are also equipping themselves with instruments to sanction the decline in the rule of law and good governance. On the other hand, since 2011, donors have hesitated to use this weapon.
Suspension of ODA less frequent
Between 2011 and 2021, 67% of coups were followed by the suspension of public development assistance. For the authors of the study, this is the big comeback “ geostrategic interests in a multipolar world ». Today, on the African continent, Westerners are no longer the only donors. They are in competition with the Russiathe Chine, but also the Gulf or Asian countries. A context which invites them to be much more cautious with the putschists.
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