2023-10-16 20:44:10
The price of oil in particular has recently risen significantly again. With the tensions in the Middle East, it has even exceeded the $90 per barrel mark (159 liter barrel). While it initially looked as if fuel prices at gas stations in Germany would not go up this time, that has now changed. The price for diesel has climbed back over the mark of 1.80 euros per liter to 1.827 euros, and that for Super E10 to 1.816 euros.
Nevertheless, Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank, believes that this development will not push the German inflation rate further up in October. After all, the price of oil had fallen significantly before the terrible events in Israel: “We expect the inflation rate in Germany to fall from 4.5 to just under 4 percent in October,” says the economist.
Ice cream costs 12 percent more
Inflation in Germany has fallen recently, but is still high by historical standards, as the quarterly FAZ price report shows. The inflation rate was 6.2 in July, 6.1 in August and 4.5 percent in September.
A statistical base effect plays a role in the sharp decline in September: Last year, the federal government artificially depressed the price level between June and August with the 9-euro train ticket and the fuel discount. The rates were correspondingly higher in these three months this year. That fell out of the inflation calculation in September.
For energy as a whole, prices are currently 1 percent higher than in September 2022; compared to the previous month of August 2023, the price increase was 0.8 percent. On average, food was 7.5 percent more expensive than in the same month last year and 0.4 percent more expensive than the previous month.
Depending on the food, the development varies quite a bit. Potatoes, for example, are 22.3 percent more expensive than a year ago, but 5.4 percent cheaper than a month ago. Ice cream is 12.4 percent more expensive than a year ago and 0.4 percent more expensive than a month ago.
Pizza also became significantly more expensive
Over the year, the price increase for pizza was 12.4 percent, for flour 16.4 percent, for meat 4.9 percent, and for mineral water 10.6 percent. Butter was cheaper over the year by 29 percent, sunflower oil by 16.6 percent and coffee by 1.2 percent. French fries were 0.2 percent cheaper than the previous month, but 29 percent more expensive than a year ago. Over the year, cucumbers were 30.5 percent cheaper and fruit juice was 28.6 percent more expensive. Cocoa powder rose in price by 20.7 percent, rice by 13.7 percent, white bread by 11 percent. Biscuits have even risen in price by 37.8 percent. Fish, fish products and seafood also became noticeably more expensive, increasing by 9.6 percent.
For example, tea (minus 0.4 percent), ready-made soups (minus 0.5 percent), sugar (minus 0.2 percent), chips (minus 1.1 percent) and dairy products and eggs (minus 0.4 percent) became cheaper on a monthly basis ).
When it comes to energy, the situation is as follows: Natural gas for consumers was 5.3 percent cheaper in September than a year ago and 1.2 percent cheaper than a month ago. Heating oil was 26 percent cheaper than a year ago, but 6 percent more expensive than a month ago. Premium gasoline cost 3.7 percent less than a year ago, but again 1.7 percent more than a month ago. Diesel was 12.5 percent cheaper than a year ago, but 3.9 percent more expensive than a month ago.
Rents are rising only moderately
Net rents, at least as defined by the Federal Statistical Office, rose only below average over the year, by 2.1 percent. On the other hand, prices for the maintenance and repair of apartments increased significantly by 12.9 percent.
There are certain signs that price pressure is easing somewhat, but it is unclear to what extent this will last. On Monday, the Federal Statistical Office reported that producer prices for agricultural products fell by 5.6 percent in August compared to the same month last year. In addition, wholesale prices in September were 4.1 percent below the same month last year – that was the sharpest decline in almost three and a half years. Both can also have an impact on consumer prices with a delay.
However, price pressure in the euro zone is still “too high,” warned Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Marrakech. Upside risks are “still quite present,” he added. It is “too early to celebrate the victory”. Inflation rates in the euro area have fallen rapidly, but on average they are still well above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2 percent. According to the projections, they are unlikely to return to this level for another two years.
Economists now said in a survey by the Bloomberg news agency that they assumed that the central bank would not be able to lower its key interest rates again until September 2024. This is a significant change from the previous round of surveys, when respondents expected a reduction in March. The result fits in with the statements made by numerous ECB Governing Council members on the sidelines of the IMF autumn meeting. The experts surveyed assume that price increases in the euro area will slow to 2.7 percent next year and to 2.1 percent in 2025. So just a slow decline – but still.
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