Experts named the main reasons for a possible rise in the price of energy resources
Western oil traders do not give up hope that the price of a barrel of oil will return to the $ 100 mark in the coming years. The growth of investments in “green energy” risks reducing financial investments in the development of hydrocarbon deposits and leading to a drop in the production of traditional types of energy resources, which may cause a shortage of “black gold” on world trading floors. However, it is premature to harbor illusions that Russia will be able to return to the “fat” 2000s again. American companies, taking advantage of the soaring quotations, will certainly not miss the chance to increase the production of shale raw materials and once again bring down the oil market.
The world market will see a barrel for $ 100, of course, not tomorrow – according to traders, the quotes of raw materials will catch up to this position closer to 2025. Nevertheless, the preconditions for an increase in oil prices are already being seen. According to the founder of the Swiss trader Mercuria Marco Dananda, by the end of this year, the demand for “black gold” will recover to the level recorded on the eve of the pandemic, and will exceed 100 million barrels per day. Russell Hardy, head of the Swiss-Dutch trading firm Vitol, agrees with him, who considers the $ 100 per barrel mark the most likely in the medium term, noting that many OPEC + countries, including Russia, are still limiting their exports.
There are several reasons for the growth in the value of “black gold”: the depletion of world reserves, an increase in production with a high cost of raw materials, and a reduction in investments in geological exploration due to the development of renewable energy sources. “The depletion of reserves means the following – the readily available and cheapest volumes of raw materials are being reduced, which now do not exceed 10% of the world’s total oil resources. The rest of the reserves are included in the category of hard-to-recover reserves that require the use of new technologies and serious investments, ”says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.
The current level of investment in the development of hydrocarbon deposits does not yet inspire confidence that the situation will be reversed. In 2020, the six largest oil companies on the planet – ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total and Eni – reduced their capital investments in development by almost 30% or more than $ 105 billion. In total, according to the international consulting company Wood Mackenzie, in the past In 2014, investments in oil production fell to $ 330 billion, which is less than half of the funds that were spent on similar goals in 2014. “Insufficient rates of exploration are due to the fact that for banks that lend to oil workers, alternative energy is taking priority positions – financiers are much more willing to provide money for projects to extract energy from solar panels or wind farms, while oil companies are left without funds for exploration of new deposits ”, – explains Deev.
Meanwhile, there is a downside to the return of “black gold” to $ 100 per barrel: the rise in prices will expand the investment portfolio not only of the established industry leaders – Saudi Arabia and Russia, but also intensify shale production in the United States, which may again upset the fragile balance of raw materials. market. As recent experience shows, American shale producers usually have a rather small time and financial lag between investment and production, – said Mark Goykhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade. In other words, by resuming investments now, American producers will receive the first return on investment in a year or two, while companies developing traditional hydrocarbon provinces will have to wait from five to ten years to achieve the same goals. Thus, Russia should not rely on super-expensive oil: if a barrel rises to $ 100, then it will surely collapse very quickly.
“Oil for $ 100 sounds beautiful. But such sensational statements, which periodically excite the financial world, are mostly speculative in nature. First of all, oil traders are talking about a radical change in the price environment, – Goikhman draws attention. – In the world of stock exchanges, this practice is called “verbal intervention”, which, among other things, allows you to achieve growth in quotations without actually spending a cent: you just have to express an “authoritative” opinion, and a positive effect will be provided due to other people’s investments. Traders are able to benefit from any market situation. “