The Scholz government no longer has a majority in the Bundestag since the chancellor dismissed the finance minister. Germany is getting used to new elections slowly without knowing when, because the ruling party is slowing down in light of the size of the opposition.
Published on 11/11/2024 4:24 pm
Reading time: 2min
Olaf Scholz, November 8, 2024. (FERENC ISZA / AFP)
Between the two main parties - the CDU conservatives and the ruling Social Democrats – it is a stalemate, a poker game. On Monday November 11, 2024, the government spokesman rejected the proposal of the opposition, which wanted the chancellor to ask the question of confidence on Wednesday.
The Scholz camp is clearly interested in playing for time: it wants to first pass laws on retirement, family allowances, and fee reductions to revive the industry. The Chancellor therefore wants to be able to campaign on a balance sheet. On the other hand, the interest of the opposition is exactly the opposite. The CDU is at the highest level in the opinion polls at the moment with 33% of favorable opinions. Its leader Friedrich Merz, a former arch-rival of Angela Merkel, sees his dream of gaining access to the chancellorship getting closer.
In the midst of this battle of leaders, the vast majority of voters want these elections to be held as quickly as possible, between two thirds and three quarters of them, according to polls. They find that their country in crisis cannot afford another cockfight after months of government squabbles. In fact, the attacks are increasing: the opposition accuses the Chancellor of lighting fake fires, of making grotesque maneuvers to gain time. The leader of the elections, for example, claimed that, due to the lack of paper, or the Christmas truce, the elections could not be organized properly until March 2025. The opposition was screaming then, taking the example of France able to organize legislative elections. in one month, in June 2024.
This pressure caused the chancellor to change his positions again. From now on, Olaf Scholz does not rule out asking the question of confidence before the end of the year. He is guaranteed to lose a vote, and the ballot must then be organized within the following 60 days. But in any case, the Constitution is with him, designed to avoid the instability of the Weimar regime. So it is up to him to decide if and when he wants to trust this issue.
Olaf Scholz is a master of the clocks and therefore free to play with his opponent’s nerves. Live interview on Sunday, November 10, he found that it was more “cool” than his great rival in matters of state. Although the date of the elections has not yet been decided, the campaign has already started well.
Time.news Interview: Navigating Germany’s Political Landscape Amidst Uncertainty
Editor: Welcome to Time.news. Today, we’re looking at the complex political situation in Germany following recent events that have altered the dynamics in the Bundestag. Joining us to unpack this is Dr. Anna Weber, a political science expert specializing in German politics. Thank you for being here, Dr. Weber.
Dr. Weber: Thank you for having me. It’s a crucial time for German politics, and I’m glad to discuss it.
Editor: So, let’s dive right in. The Scholz government has lost its majority in the Bundestag since the dismissal of the finance minister. Can you explain how that has influenced the current political climate?
Dr. Weber: Absolutely. The dismissal has created a power vacuum. The government’s inability to pass critical legislation while contending with a strong opposition has led to uncertainty. The Social Democrats, under Chancellor Scholz, are now in a precarious position. This situation is fueling frustration within the party as they try to address essential issues without a majority.
Editor: It seems like a strategic game of poker between the two main parties—the CDU and the Social Democrats. Can you elaborate on what tactics each side is employing?
Dr. Weber: Indeed, it’s almost like a tactical standoff. The CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, is capitalizing on its current popularity in the polls, with 33% favorability. They are pushing for a vote of no confidence, which could destabilize the Scholz government even further. Conversely, the Scholz camp is essentially stalling for time. They want to implement key policies on retirement, family allowances, and industry support to create a favorable agenda before any elections, all while hoping to bolster their standing with the electorate.
Editor: So, we are likely heading towards elections, but when? There seems to be an element of uncertainty about the timing.
Dr. Weber: Precisely. While there is pressure from the opposition, the ruling party is navigating a careful course as they gauge the political terrain. The situation suggests that elections could be imminent, but it’s unclear when or under what conditions they would occur. The Scholz government will likely strive to avoid early elections without showing some legislative achievements first.
Editor: With the CDU’s rising popularity and calls to action, what implications does this have for the future of the Social Democrats and Chancellor Scholz?
Dr. Weber: This presents a significant challenge for the Social Democrats. If they cannot effectively implement their agenda or demonstrate a positive impact on voters’ lives, they risk losing even more support. On the other hand, if they manage to pass meaningful reforms and present a solid record, they could regain traction. However, the window for them to make that case is closing fast as the CDU positions itself as a viable alternative.
Editor: Given the current political climate in Germany, what do you foresee happening in the near future?
Dr. Weber: I anticipate a few critical weeks ahead. The opposition will likely keep the pressure on, especially with the CDU’s strong polling. We may see more attempts to unseat Scholz through a confidence vote or other parliamentary maneuvers. Meanwhile, the Chancellor needs to capitalize on any legislative successes to rally support ahead of what seems to be an inevitable election.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Weber, for sharing your insights. It’s a fascinating time for German politics, and we appreciate your perspective on where things might lead next.
Dr. Weber: Thank you for having me. I always enjoy discussing these pivotal political dynamics, and I look forward to seeing how this unfolds.
Editor: Thanks to our audience for tuning in. Stay informed as these developments continue to evolve in the coming weeks.