2024-07-02 23:11:01
For two years, an unprecedented decline in olive production in the Mediterranean basin has driven up oil prices. Even if the next harvest is better, it is unlikely that this will change the situation for consumers.
After two years of drought, the money has olive oil has reached its maximum level : more than 8 euros per kilo in bulk, for the reference price in Spain, the world exporter. This results in extra virgin oils that are sold between 10 and 15 euros per liter.
The new production (2023/2024) does not bring any rest to the market: it may fall by another 100,000 tons, to reach 2.41 million tons, according to the data published at this stage by the 45 member States of the Olive Council Worldwide. The number will be confirmed this fall, during the next meeting of IOC experts.
Business exchanges a minimum
These two painful years for the sector has reduced inventories to a historic low. Even if the next harvest 2024/2025 returns and is not announced ” weak “, more” total » As some are already predicting, there is little hope of returning to the 2022 prices, according to Abdellatif Ghedira, former head of the Organization. A fraction of the production will actually have to replenish the products, so it will not be placed on the market.
This is a bad situation for the sector olive oil, are shown in the stock exchanges: they are the lowest today, as evidenced by the different platforms of financial indicators and volumes sold. Processes, which contain oil bottles, secure their purchases during the first three months of the year. Those who have not ordered will have to wait until the fall.
Adaptation to climate change
At the first World Olive Oil Congress held in Madrid last week, players in the sector discuss the increasingly complex scenarios they will have to face due to climate change, especially since the Mediterranean basin is an area that is warming 20% faster than the average, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Farmers are focusing mainly on new irrigation models, such as drip systems, explains Abdellatif Ghedira, former head of the International Olive Council. Some migrate to wet areas, or choose other varieties in areas with very little rain.
A culture that is increasingly attractive
The evolution of prices in the last two years should encourage small producing countries to increase their cultivated areas: this is the case of Saudi Arabia, Georgia, and even China where The cultivation of olives is combined, as well, in the fields. , very good results in terms of quality.
Other countries have set themselves a range and goals: a million trees for Libya, 120 million for Egypt. But at the moment, it is still Europe which ensures 60% of production, and which becomes the key to prices.
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