2024-08-04 14:21:44
With a smooth progression of weather phenomena until the harvest season, this year is predicted to be positive for olive oil production.
Under these conditions, production will range between 250,000-280,000 tons, according to the president of the National Interprofessional Olive Oil Organization (EDOE), Manolis Giannoulis.
“A condition for a moderate to good production this year is for there to be a smooth development of weather phenomena until the harvest season, which is four months from today,” he said, adding that “high temperatures and lack of rain are causing concern to producers.”
Regarding the producer price, he points out that a retreat is already being recorded. “Compared to the historical highs we reached 3-4 months ago, where the price was 9.5 euros per kilo, today we have fallen to 7 euros per kilo for extra virgin.”
In fact, according to estimates, “the price will decrease as the harvest approaches, and as long as we have sufficient supply.” And Mr. Giannoulis explains: “Drought has two consequences, firstly, a piece of the fruit will necessarily be lost, because the tree will try to “protect” itself, and the second is that the yield of the fruit is lower, compared to when it has rained.”
The situation is the same in the other olive-producing countries in the Mediterranean. Especially for Spain, which has 45% of the world’s production, this year’s harvest will reach up to 70% of its overproduction, that is, the maximum level that its annual production can potentially reach.
However, what Mr. Giannoulis noted is that regardless of the supply, consumer habits have changed in the last two years, due to the large increase in prices.
“The reduction in consumption is dramatic. At the moment it has shrunk by 40% compared to two years ago when the “rally” in olive oil prices started,” he said.
And this was done through two practices as he said. “One was less consumption of olive oil by the consumer and the second in some applications, such as frying, salad, etc. they used either less olive oil or some seed oil because of its low price.”
However, the president of EDOE appears optimistic that the “correction” in the market will come in a short period of time.
“Once the harvest reaches consumption the path to be followed will be a decrease in the price on the shelf” he noted adding that “in the spring we expect the break-even point to occur”.
Source: AMPE