2024-07-09 21:58:31
Two weeks before the opening ceremony on the Seine, INSEE is taking a turn: national accountants calculated on Tuesday that the French hosting of the Olympic and Paralympic Games should lead to an additional growth of 0. 3 points of GDP in the 3rd quarter.
“The impact of the ticket revenue and rewriting rights will be around + 0.25 points of GDP, which should include the knock-on effects, especially on travel (accommodation, food and transport), and that gifts for our civil servants. throughout the Games, with more “uncertain” economic effects but which can generate quarterly growth of 0.05 points, indicated the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) in its latest economic report.
In general, the GDP will increase by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter and by 1.1% over the whole of 2024. “Activity will slow down as a result at the end of the year,” adds INSEE , which anticipates a contraction of 0.1%. in gross domestic product (GDP) in the 4th quarter.
The effect is comparable to the London Olympics
The impact of the Olympic Games (July 26-August 11) and Paralympic Games (August 28-September 8) on the economy will be comparable to that of the London Games, which increased the British economy by 0.2 to 0.4 points of GDP in the third quarter of 2012, marked by a total growth of 1%.
While economists are often reluctant to compare the impact of different editions of the Games, INSEE assumes a comparison between the 2012 and 2024 guidelines “London and Paris are two large European cities of development, the tourist economy, with established urban infrastructure,” argued. statistical body, on the contrary rejects “inconsistent” comparisons with the Rio Games in 2016 or those in Tokyo in 2021.
For the Paris Games, most of the boost to growth is linked to ticket sales (+ 0.15 points of GDP, or 1.2 billion euros in revenue for the organizing committee) and of broadcasting rights (+ 0.1 points of GDP, or 750 million revenue), which INSEE chose to record in the third quarter.
Long term support
Even if the sale of tickets for the Games begins in 2023, in fact it is measured “at the time when everyone is consumed”, that is to say during the Olympic and Paralympic events, INSEE explains. The same logic prevails for broadcasting rights. The support provided by the 2024 Olympics to French growth will be temporary and will not be repeated in the fourth quarter, according to his forecasts.
Although the event should lead to an increase in consumption in certain sectors (housing, food, transportation), this will have a negligible impact on growth in the third quarter.
INSEE takes the example of television buys, which sometimes increase during sporting events such as the World Cup. These purchases certainly support energy, but they often come at the expense of other expenditures, which negates their beneficial effect on growth.
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