The Russian authorities are preparing for an explosive increase in the incidence against the background of the spread of the omicron strain of the coronavirus. According to Anna Popova, head of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, there may be hundreds of thousands of new cases per day. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin predicts a serious worsening of the epidemic situation in the capital within a week. And in the next month and a half, according to WHO estimates, more than half of the population of Europe will be infected with the omicron.
In Russia, there are signs of a worsening epidemiological situation, said on Tuesday the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova during a meeting of the Presidium of the Coordination Council under the Government of the Russian Federation to combat COVID-19. “In 35 regions, the incidence rate of COVID-19 exceeds the national average. The maximum indicators also remain in the older age group: 76.3 in the country as a whole and 117.3 among the age group over 65 per 100 thousand of the population of this age, ”said Ms. Popova. She added that more and more often the omicron strain is being detected in Russia, which has already caused a twofold increase in the incidence in the United States and Europe. In our country, according to Anna Popova, 305 cases of this strain have been registered in 13 regions. Earlier, the head of the service said that people who had recently returned from abroad or had contact with them were infected. Nevertheless, on January 6, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko admitted that cases of omicron infection were also detected among Russians who did not travel abroad. So, on Tuesday, the head of Rospotrebnadzor in the Rostov region, Yevgeny Kovalev, said that the virus was found in a woman and a six-month-old child from Rostov-on-Don, who did not leave the country and did not contact those who returned from abroad.
The incidence of coronavirus in Russia has been declining since mid-December. The minimum of the fourth wave was reached on January 6 – only 15,316 infected were identified. The total number of COVID-19 cases in the country in the first week of 2022 was the lowest since June 2021. However, in the following days, the number of new cases began to grow. On January 11, the federal headquarters reported 17,525 cases per day. The dynamics are especially noticeable in the example of Moscow: on January 6, 2,357 Muscovites fell ill with COVID-19, and on January 11, 4,635 new cases of infection.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin linked the rise in new cases to the spread of omicron. The number of people infected with it in Moscow, he says, is rapidly increasing, and within 7-10 days in the capital, a significant deterioration of the situation is expected. “It is possible that we will face a more critical situation than in previous waves of morbidity, – warned the mayor. – Let’s hope for the best, but prepare for any development of the event.”
Mr. Sobyanin considers it necessary to mobilize additional bed capacity and the health care system as a whole, as well as strengthen control over the implementation of the requirements of Rospotrebnadzor. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin instructed the heads of the regions to maintain an increased readiness of the healthcare system in the context of the spread of covid and monitor the supply of drugs. He also called for all measures to be taken so that the level of testing for coronavirus corresponds to the indicators established by Rospotrebnadzor – at least 300 tests per 100 thousand people.
Health Minister Mikhail Murashko made it clear that the health care system is ready for new tests: against the background of the December recession, almost 30% of hospital beds were free, he said. However, morbidity projections are not the most optimistic. According to Anna Popova, Rospotrebnadzor does not exclude the possibility of identifying “six-digit numbers.” Thus, we can talk about the level of up to 1 million cases per day. Note that in the United States on Tuesday, at least 1.35 million new cases of coronavirus infection were detected per day. According to Reuters, this is the world record for the entire pandemic.
According to the forecast of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, in the next six to eight weeks more than 50% of the population of Europe will be infected with omicron, said the head of the European department of the World Health Organization (WHO) Hans Kluge. Mr Kluge added that this variant of COVID-19 is rapidly becoming dominant in Western Europe and is now spreading to the Balkans. He also said the region had over 7 million new infections in the first week of 2022, doubling in two weeks. According to Mr. Kluge, as of January 10, 26 countries report that more than 1% of their population gets COVID-19 every week.
Scientists are still unable to objectively assess the danger of the omicron. Anna Popova clarified that the data received by her department confirmed the thesis of “the extremely rapid spread of the virus and its high contagiousness.” The carrier of the omicron strain, according to her, can be infectious as early as the second day after infection, and the symptoms will appear only on the third or fifth day.
However, several international studies indicate a milder course of this variant of the coronavirus compared to the “delta” and Wuhan variant.
In particular, scientists from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in South Africa and the University of Pretoria have come to the conclusion that the number of deaths after the start of the spread of “omicron” decreased by 75%. Danish Public Health Authority (SSI) CTO Tira Grove Krause told The Guardian that the risk of hospitalization with an omicron infection is half that of a delta infection. omicron could trigger the latest wave of coronavirus. “
Professor of Virology, Chief Researcher of the Gamaleya Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology Anatoly Altstein, in turn, suggested that the lethality from the omicron strain would not exceed 0.5% in Russia and 0.1–0.2% in countries with higher vaccination rate. The deputy director of the Gamaleya Center, Denis Logunov, nevertheless emphasized the “absolutely unprecedented” incidence rate in the case of the omicron:
“For example, our mortality rate and the number of hospitalized people can be reduced by 60-70%, but at the same time there will be such a level of morbidity that it will cover it all with a margin.”
Sergei Voznesensky, associate professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, still looks at the situation with “moderate optimism.” According to him, today there is no reliable data that the course of coronavirus infection caused by the omicron strain would require a large number of hospitalizations and entail a large number of deaths. At the same time, emphasizes Mr. Voznesensky, it is necessary to observe protective measures: vaccinate and use personal respiratory protection: “If we do what we must, we will overcome this rise quite favorably.”
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