Dr. San Srianthamrong, special lecturer, independent academic, posted on Facebook. Sunt Srianthumrong About the Covid-19 species “Omicron” that Covid-19: Wave#5 Omicron moving forward to Songkran get ready India Model It’s a painful fight for a long time to come to an end.
3 months have passed in Wave #5 of “Omicron” Omicron A question in the minds of many people.
1. I think I’ve come down 2 times, but why haven’t I reached the peak yet?
2. How many people are actually infected per day? Many people around him are continually infected.
3. When will it end?endemic diseasewhen
4. How to survive
I have the answer from calculations and projections
Summary of past situations And It’s Going: Past & Present
1. Wave#5 It has been an uptrend since January 1, but the RT-PCR test is low, so the number doesn’t go up, it’s not fully visible, and the disease can’t be controlled. The tail of the wave was so long that it didn’t end until now.
2. ATK began to decrease greatly. The total number that has been returned to stabilize, but did not go down, despite the continued upward trend
3. Chonburi is very diligent to inspect. A single province has found a total of PCR+ATK almost 10,000 a day. If you are diligent like this, every province The number across the country should have crossed hundreds of thousands.
4. Those who can’t detect and refuse to test will be worker ants, continually infecting Thailand, causing Thailand to gradually move forward into the India Model of Herd Immunity that ends in a sacrificial way. Many countries are like this.
Numbers and graphs:
Bangkok :
1. The %Increase chart of RT-PCR is a slow downtrend at an 84-day Time Constant, which is too slow.
2. The cumulative infected person graph will not reach the saturation point in the next 4 months.
3. We’ll see RT-PCR levels of 3,000 per day for a long time to come. and may be elevated after Songkran
4. The real cases of coronavirus cases in Bangkok are 0.4% exaggerated mortality, compared to 0.05 – 0.1% in Singapore. Bangkok should be at the level of 10,000 – 30,000 people.
5. If the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration does not finish, other provinces will continue to repeat the epidemic.
Thailand: Present & Future
1. Graph %Increase of RT-PCR is a slow downtrend at Time Constant lasts up to 65 days
2. The cumulative infected person graph will not reach the saturation point in the next 4 months.
3. We will see daily RT-PCR numbers above 20,000 at least until June 15 and remain above 10,000 until Aug. 1, but the numbers may be elevated after Songkran. and it’s worse if injected Booster not enough
4. The %Increase curve of RT-PCR+ATK decreased with no apparent cause 3 weeks ago. Probably due to a much lower examination
5. Daily Case RT-PCR+ATK Based on the same trend line as 31/3/2022, the number of infections is likely to be around 130,000 a day, not 40,000-50,000.
as detected
6. Mortality rate if calculated from the graph base RT-PCR+ATK 130,000 people with a 19-day delay will get a mortality rate of 0.12%, consistent with the actual vaccine level and the same as abroad.
7. The mortality rate began to decrease from the 0.2% level to near the 0.1% line, if the booster injection was increased, it could be reduced by up to 0.05%, which would cause death. In the worst case, no more than 200 people per day.
8. The infection continues to rise rapidly. because of less infection It may reach the level of 500,000 people per day by the end of May, but we will never be able to prove this fact.
9. If enough vaccinations, RT-PCR numbers for people who need to be hospitalized. It is as low as 2% of all infected people. Actually 500,000 RT-PCR can be as low as 10,000 per day.
10. If You Can’t Control We will infect 70% of the population and have Herd Immunity in July-Aug 2022 and the infection will decrease rapidly. but at the cost of 20,000 – 40,000 deaths
India Model: Good News and Bad News
good news:
Herd Immunity was born, just passed the festival of colors without spawning a new wave. Omicron can actually finish
Bad news:
521,159 reported deaths, the real figure from Excess Death is probably 7 million.
43,024,440 reported infections, the real number may have reached a billion.
The average age of the population is 28 years old, 12 years younger than Thailand. Still hurting this much.
Conclusion and alternatives:
1. In Thailand, we now check for fewer infections. The disease can’t be controlled. It should go to Herd Immunity like India, mixed with vaccination for low mortality.
2. There may be a Herd Immunity in the next 4 months. Those who love health, please be patient to be the last 30% that may survive the infection. or at least low risk
3. Success in slowing the epidemic and accelerating the booster injection in the past, causing the death to be around 20,000 -40,000 people, much less than the case of slow injection at 1-2 hundred thousand people.
4. 3 types of people who love health, ask them to be patient for another 4 months. Those who can’t be patient, go get all vaccinations. and accept the risk People refuse to vaccinate and can’t stand it. would be 10 to 40 times more likely to die than others
we are in Wave Omicron This one that everyone likes to say that it will be short. Up faster and faster, but 3 months has proven that the Wave won’t go down if the disease is not seriously controlled. Not vaccinating well and enough. Not following any rules. and live together with complete carelessness But anyway, it’s past. It’s too late to fix it or go back to Lockdown. Everything must move on. If there are no more new species coming, it will be over in the next 3-4 months. Each person will be able to choose a different ending method. At this moment, everything will be natural. who is strong Those who survive, those who are fortunate will survive. But if you don’t want to increase your luck too much I went to complete vaccinations. then take care of your health
P.S. The end of that There are probably tens of thousands of people infected every day. dozens of deaths a day Each year, COVID causes tens of thousands of deaths, second only to cancer. But the vast majority of our lives will go back to normal. But you have to remember to live with it.
Thank you Sunt Srianthumrong