The omikron variants BA.4 and BA.5 appear to be rapidly becoming the dominant variants of the coronavirus in the Netherlands. This is apparent from the latest figures from the Amsterdam Regional Genomic Epidemiology and Outbreak Surveillance (ARGOS), a partnership between the Amsterdam UMC and the GGD Amsterdam. The poll is based on a sample of positive corona tests that the GGD takes.
A week ago, the BA.4 and BA.5 variants were still responsible for 27 percent of the corona infections. Now it is already about 54 percent of the cases, a doubling in a week’s time. Never before has the battle between these variants and the BA.2-omikron variant, which is prevalent in the Netherlands, gone so quickly in favor of the newcomers.
More infections
According to Matthijs Welkers, a medical microbiologist at Amsterdam UMC and one of the researchers at ARGOS, this development will probably lead to an increase in corona infections in the Netherlands in the coming period. “We have seen abroad that with the dominance of these omikron variants, the number of people who became infected with the virus increased.”
According to data from the American Johns Hopkins University, a modest corona wave has been going on in Portugal since May as a result of the same variants.
The RIVM measurements in Dutch sewage water also show that the number of virus particles is increasing. However, RIVM thinks it is too early to conclude that a corona wave is imminent in the summer.
Start of summer golf?
“It is indeed just a matter of time to look at the coffee grounds,” says Welkers. “At the same time, it could well be that these developments are the start of a summer wave. For me it is the combination of factors: you see the switch in which the BA.4/BA.5 variants become dominant more quickly; we see an increase in the sewage; we see an increase in the number of reports of infections. Take that together and my conclusion is that the number of infections will continue to increase.”
The question is what social consequences a possible corona wave could cause. “They are variations on omikron and we know that it is less sickening compared to previous variants such as delta. So the hospitals will probably not fill up with new corona patients.”
“But people do catch a cold, and it will circulate. At work, that can lead to more outages and cause problems for many companies in terms of occupation.”
Drop
Welkers points out that the holiday period is just around the corner, which means that fewer staff are available anyway. “Then an increase in infections can be the proverbial straw that will make everything more difficult.”
“I still find it a bit difficult to say: ‘We have to prepare ourselves.’ But it is clear that something is coming, so the Netherlands will have to think about which scenarios are realistic and what we should do then.”
In a response, Minister Kuipers says that the number of infections is increasing slightly and that the number of people who become so ill that they need help from a hospital is also increasing. “But at the moment it is not alarming. As always, we will continue to monitor it. And the RIVM does that too.”