Stefania Gentili and Rita Di Giovambattista have developed an artificial intelligence program, called “Nestore”, for the analysis of the aftershocks after the main
After a shock of earthquakeit is possible to indicate the probability of occurrence of replicas? And above all of what intensity? Two Italian scientists, Stefania Gentili and Rita Di Giovambattistahave just published a study in the trade journal Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors
in which theartificial intelligence (AI) to estimate the probability of occurrence of strong successive shocks. “It is not a forecast that indicates the moment in which the earthquake will occur, but it is a probabilistic indication that strong replications can take place”, explains Gentili, seismologist at theNational Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (Ogs) of Trieste, who signed the article. “This is also a preliminary study, which at the moment cannot be used for application purposes for civil protection purposes”, adds Rita Di Giovambattista, director of the Earthquakes department of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Ingv), and co-author.
Artificial intelligence
«The innovative AI program that we propose, which has been called Nestor (NExt STrOng Related Earthquake), evaluates what happens in an area hit by an earthquake in the following hours and days to define the probability of occurrence of strong replicas»Continues Gentili. The study was done by analyzing the data of the Californiaone of the areas with the greatest seismicity in the world but also one of the most studied and for which a seismic catalog has been available since 1980.
Correct evaluation
“Our algorithm has provided a correct assessment in 80% of the cases analyzed », says the seismologist of the Ogos. “It is a research that has so far been used retrospectively, starting from seismic catalogs of earthquakes that have already occurred”, continues Di Giovambattista. “Replicas of strong earthquakes can cause further severe damage to already damaged structures. The study of the evolution of seismicity after a strong earthquake is therefore of great interest ». Now the software, the two scientists say, will be made available to the international community in order to evaluate its capabilities in different seismotectonic areas. In particular, a collaboration with Greece. The article was developed as part of an Italy-Japan scientific collaboration project funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
June 10, 2022 (change June 10, 2022 | 11:14)
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