Since last night, wouldn’t we be witnessing the great return of the people to the National Assembly? With the success of the Nupes, the historic push of the National Rally and a less than relative majority for Emmanuel Macron, the re-elected president has therefore not succeeded in his most important bet: obtaining an absolute majority of 289 seats.
Such is life. In the second round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron was recently re-elected with 58.5% of the vote, ahead of Marine Le Pen with a score of 41.5%. This “victory” came following a call for a Republican barrage supported by incessant media hype, operated in concert by all the mainstream media. As for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in the first round, he just missed the second step of the podium.
The legislative elections of this Sunday were therefore the third round of the presidential election. And their result is a stinging slap in the face for the presidential majority.
Faced with this crushing defeat, despite the facade smile adopted last night on the TV sets, the entire macronie must be questioning itself. For a president who during the week asked the French to give him an absolute majority, there is reason to be pissed. And for good reason ! Emmanuel Macron will therefore have to compose. However, what is more complex for a newly re-elected man in search of an absolute majority and all power, than having to compose?
While she controlled almost everything, the macronie obtained only 42% of the seats. This shows that democracy, even if it’s hanging by a thread, somewhere still works. It is therefore the return of the people to the National Assembly. A large number of French people (a majority?) had probably been waiting for this since 1992, the year of the Maastricht Treaty.
However, another question suddenly arises.
And if, finally, the impossibility of having a government validated by the National Assembly, was the best way for Emmanuel Macron to obtain full powers?
Section 16 of the Constitution expressly provides:
“When the institutions of the Republic, the independence of the nation, the integrity of its territory or the execution of its international commitments are seriously and immediately threatened and the regular functioning of the constitutional public powers is interrupted, the President of the Republic takes the measures required by these circumstances, after official consultation with the Prime Minister, the presidents of the assemblies as well as the Constitutional Council”.
And as in fact no government will be able to lead the country for lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, unfortunately, “the regular functioning of the constitutional powers is interrupted”.
And it is not impossible to envisage a “serious and immediate threat” in a context of a state of health emergency established for two years now against a backdrop of geopolitical instability in our country, which was once recognized for its tradition of power of balance (unilateral and unconditional support for the Ukrainian camp in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) .
Indeed, only a coalition formed by two of the three major political forces of the new Assembly could carry a government. However, it seems unlikely that the Nupes and the National Rally would form a coalition. Moreover, the Nupes and the RN have so castigated the macronie (and vice versa), that neither seems able to form a coalition with the macronist deputies. At least not without the French becoming fully aware that the role-playing of the political parties in place for 40 years, in reality, is only an intrigue, of which they are perpetually the more or less consenting actors.
And if it turns out that, in fact, it stems from a strategy that has been meticulously thought out, fomented, prepared and implemented, it will hurt my heart to say so, but, if so, I will have to pull them my hat.
As Machiavelli said: “When deceit is elevated to the rank of art, one can only be in awe”.