“On the scale of human civilization, we are entering uncharted territory”

2023-07-23 05:00:14

More than 50°C in the United States and China, around 45°C in Italy, Spain or Greece, deadly floods in South Korea, raging fires in Canada or even an unprecedented temperature in the North Atlantic: the planet is subject to a series of climatic disasters. July could be the hottest on record, after June. Climatologist Michael E. Mann, director of the Center for Science and the Environment at the University of Pennsylvania (USA), refutes the idea of ​​an acceleration of warming, but warns that we could cross tipping points if we continue to use fossil fuels.

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Does the current succession of extremes and records mark a new normal?

It’s worse than a new normal: it’s an ever-changing baseline, with effects that will only get worse, all over the world, as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels. [charbon, pétrole et gaz] and generate greenhouse gas emissions. Not only will we see new records broken, but they will be shattered by the impact of the climate crisis. This year, the El Niño phenomenon, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that can increase global temperatures, adds to this trend.

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Has the climate entered a phase out of control?

This is not the case. The climate continues to deteriorate, and it is already very serious. But we are not yet close to any kind of runaway reaction and there is no evidence that points of no return have been crossed. However, the latter could be achieved if we continue to burn fossil fuels and therefore warm the planet. We still have time to prevent the worst effects from happening if we act now.

For scientists like Johan Rockström, who heads the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, we would have already exceeded seven out of eight planetary boundaries “safe and fair”thresholds beyond which humanity would be in danger…

I think there is a linguistic misunderstanding. Are we talking about climate tipping points or societal tipping points? It’s not the same thing. Constant, linear warming could in principle lead to a societal tipping point, as there is a threshold beyond which the complex system of the economy can no longer function. But there is no evidence that the situation has gotten out of control from a climatic point of view. On the contrary, it is steadily getting worse as the planet warms up as a result of our activities. And there is not the slightest consensus about planetary boundaries.

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