As Putin announced over the weekend the annexation of the four occupied Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – to Russia, perhaps he could feel his padded chair in the Kremlin shifting uncomfortably. Putin, who turned millions of children, old men and women citizens of Ukraine into war refugees, has succeeded in recent days in turning tens of thousands of Russian men who ran away from conscription into war into refugees as well.
The announcement of the emergency mobilization of 300 thousand soldiers to the front is the clear proof of the Russian distress in this war. As long as this war was fought away from Moscow and St. Petersburg, it may have been received with some understanding, despite the severe sanctions imposed on Russia and its citizens and despite the economic distress. But as news of the Russian army’s failures on the battlefield began to spread, a certain unrest began throughout Russia. Criticism of the army, of the conduct of the war, and of Putin began to be heard, but still far from civil unrest, certainly not something that would undermine Putin’s rule. After all, Russia is known for its ability to suppress and silence any element that tries to raise its head against a brutal regime.
According to most predictions and interpretations by military and intelligence officials, Ukraine was supposed to collapse under the wheels of the Russian war machine. But as it seems today, Ukraine not only restrained the Russians, it managed to turn Putin into a paper tiger, forced by the plight of his army and his failure to threaten Ukraine with nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that the Russia of today is not the Russia before the invasion.
The war with Ukraine could bring the end of the Putin era in Russia, right, it is still not seen and felt on the Russian street. Such a transformation in Russia can only take place within the Kremlin, in the courtyards and halls that surround it, within the leadership groups around Putin. Until the beginning of last summer, Putin had the opportunity to get out of this war with part of his greed in hand because in Europe leaders were still looking for a compromise, a solution to prevent a gas and oil crisis. But Putin did not compromise, but wanted to topple the Ukrainian regime, exile President Zelensky and appoint a “Russian puppet” in his place, feeling that Europe would succumb to pressure. He certainly did not imagine that the Ukrainian army would reach such achievements.
Today, as mentioned, the tables were turned: Putin was certainly ready today to end the war, while on the other hand, Zelensky, with American support, is crushing the Russian army. This situation may create an escalation in this war in the coming days: the more the Ukrainians continue to liberate villages and cities from the Russian occupation, the more the Russians will increase the missile launches towards the civilian population.
Tensions will also increase in the relations between Israel and Russia, when Israel’s non-recognition of the annexation of the Ukrainian regions to Russia will turn into Russian anger. The successes of the Ukrainian military, the Russian failure and the mistakes of Putin will hasten the end of this war and, as it turns out, will also lead to the end of the Putin era.