2023-09-21 08:33:30
32% of voters in 31 European countries went to far-Left or far-Right populist parties, according to a political analysis published by Guardian.
The analysis, which brings together the conclusions of the research of a hundred political scientists, finds that in the national elections last year a record 32% of Europeans voted for anti-establishment parties.
In the early 2000s, the corresponding figure was 20%, and in the early 1990s 12%.
Center-Right sliding towards the extremes
The research, led by Matias Rowden, a political scientist at University of Amsterdamwhich was shared exclusively with Guardian, also finds that about half of voters who support anti-establishment parties move to the far right. This is the percentage that registers the fastest increase.
In addition, mainstream parties lose votes, while anti-establishment parties gain.
The rise of the nationalist, authoritarian far-right has shifted the political axis in Europe as a whole, with researchers now labeling several of the traditional centre-right parties as “fringe far-right”.
“We talked a lot about the shift to the right of them Conservatives of Britain, of VVD of Mark Rutte in Holland, of Republicans in France and of ÖVP in Austria,” says Rowden.
“Ultimately, we did not include them in the far-right parties, because of their center-right ideological starting point. However, it is not unlikely that we will do so in the future,” the political analyst points out.
Far right in Europe
The research finds 234 anti-systemic parties throughout Europe, among which, the 165 are characterized as populist. It ranks 61 parties in the far-left political space and 112 in the far-right space.
Populist parties often divide society into two groups: one “pure people” versus a “corrupt elite». They believe that all political initiatives and actions must express the “will of the people”.
From Orban… to Meloni
In the survey there are references to populist politicians already in power, such as the leader of Hungary Viktor Orbanher ruling Law and Justice party Polandthe Georgia Meloni in Italy and, in the Nordic region, the Party of the Finns and the Sweden Democrats participating in government coalitions.
In addition, mention is made of parties whose popularity is increasing significantly. Party Freedom of Austria (FPÖ) has a comfortable lead in the polls a year after the election, the German AfD doubled its percentages to 22% and is in second place, ahead of the centre-left SPDwhile Marine Le Pen is also on an upward trajectory.
Reference is also made to “three far-right parties in Greece” which won parliamentary seats in the June elections, as well as in Spain, where populist and separatist parties are determining political developments.
Immigration, vaccines and climate
Many factors are behind the trend, as pointed out by the researchers, who examined parties that have won at least one seat or 2% of the vote in national elections from 1989 to date.
Their big issue has always been the immigrationhowever they are now exploiting all the insecurities of the voters to win votes.
The lockdowns and vaccinesgender, history, symbols of national identity and the climate crisis are their favorite topics.
Furthermore, the cost of living crisis and war in Ukraine are other issues of concern to voters and politically exploited.
Who votes for them and why?
Among the far-right voters, for the first time, elderly women, city dwellers, and the educated middle class are found, analysts point out.
The major center-right and center-left parties are partly to blame for the shift, they add, as, they explain, there has been a progressive distancing from society’s demands.
In almost all European countries, the pressure, mainly on the traditional centre-right, to adopt far-right political positions, especially in migratoryare now extreme.
This “radicalization” of the Center-Right signals that the “health barrier” that traditionally separated it from the extreme Right is gradually dissolving.
The tip of the iceberg
Some analysts point out that the group of voters who are tolerant towards the extreme right has simply grown.
They think so fears that Europe is “sliding to the far right” are exaggerated and stress that the Center is more resilient than polls and election results suggest.
At the same time, however, others warn that the resilience of the center presupposes stability which does not exist either in society or in politics.
The “replacement” voting percentage of one in three voters could only be the tip of the iceberg, they point out.
Source: Guardian
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