Barrel will be overclocked to $ 100
OPEC + at a regular meeting raised production limits by 400 thousand barrels per day. This measure, according to the members of the alliance, will help maintain price stability and satisfy the current needs of consumers. However, if in the near future it is not possible to pay off the acute gas shortage in Europe, a barrel of oil may rise in price to $ 100.
The increase in production capacity by 400 thousand barrels in October fits into the schedule of a gradual recovery in the supply of “black gold” to the global market. The oil bosses agreed on this in the spring of last year. Since then, the OPEC + countries, increasing production in about the same amount every month, have increased their production by more than 4.7 million “barrels” per day. According to the members of the alliance, the increments allocated according to the plan will fully satisfy the November needs of the world market.
However, risks have risen that could cause producing states to move away from the original schedule. On the one hand, the acceleration of consumer needs stimulates an additional increase in production capacity. It is no coincidence that the alliance experts on the eve of the meeting raised their forecast for the demand for “black gold” this year by a third. On the other hand, Washington is actively demanding a reduction in oil prices, which are now hovering around the $ 80 mark. At the end of September, the Assistant to the President for National Security of the United States, Jake Sullivan, went on a tour of the Middle East – he began in Riyadh, where he brought the American point of view on fair oil prices to the Saudi Arabian authorities.
In this regard, the current OPEC + decision may turn out to be an intermediate one. And the members of the alliance will have to talk again before the end of the year in order to update the terms of the common mining policy. Producers will have to take into account that the gas crisis is gaining momentum in the world: the cost of one thousand cubic meters has exceeded $ 1200, which is equivalent to the price of oil at $ 190 per barrel. Consumers from Europe, constrained by a severe shortage of blue fuel since the beginning of autumn, have long resigned themselves to high prices for energy resources. According to Bank of America, in the current circumstances, oil products will again come to the fore in the world energy theater, which may for the first time since 2014 provoke a rise in prices for “black gold” to $ 100 per barrel.
According to the expert of the Academy of Finance and Investment Management Alexei Krichevsky, despite the factors pushing to revise production limits, OPEC + participants will not rush to increase production until the beginning of next year. “Depending on the situation with the energy crisis in the world, quotations can either go down to $ 65-70, or rise to $ 85, and even up to $ 100. However, it will not be possible to reach such a level this year, ”the expert believes.
One of the main reasons that can become an obstacle to the growth of global demand for energy resources remains the danger of a modified strain and the further large-scale spread of the coronavirus. Many states are gradually opening their borders, although the number of vaccinated is growing every day. “The threat of a new round of pandemic development is a strong argument against the expansion of oil production at the present time,” says Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at IAC Alpari. – There are warnings that the situation with the fight against coronavirus will only get worse. Then the demand for raw materials will decrease, prices will fall, and the market will literally flood with oil. “
Meanwhile, the Russian budget risks staying away from future price records of “black gold”. “We must not forget that market quotes are growing in the spot, short-term market. Contracts for the supply of “black gold”, which domestic companies entered into for this year, contained the average prices of previous years, which were mainly in the range of $ 60-70 per barrel, “explains Krichevsky.
Newspaper headline:
Less gas, more oil
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