2023-05-26 12:00:09
• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces) made small attacks in the North-East of Ukraine in the Kupyansk region and in the direction of Svatovo-Kremennaya, as a result, the Russians achieved minimal results. According to the Russian side, Ukrainians carried out reconnaissance raids in the same areas.
• Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on May 20 that Bakhmut had been captured, adding that on the 25th his units would start moving out of the city to regroup. It is stated that the Wagnerites must leave Bakhmut by June 1. It will not be easy to carry out the transfer of positions in such a short time. This is Prigozhin’s third promise to withdraw troops, so it is not known for certain whether this is a real intention or whether this is another attempt by Prigozhin to strengthen his positions. In the event that the Wagnerites leave, the Russian Federation will either have to transfer units to Bakhmut from other sectors of the front, or use reserves.
• Fighting continues on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line. Russian forces have made minimal progress. It is worth noting that the battle for Avdiivka has been going on for a year and three months. As in the case of Bakhmut, in March 2023 there was a threat of encirclement of the city.
• In the southern direction, the RF Armed Forces continue to prepare for a possible Ukrainian offensive. For example, there is information about the mining of the eastern bank of the Dnieper and the construction of barriers against swimming facilities. The Russians continue to hold Ukrainian positions under artillery and air strikes.
On the attacks of pro-Ukrainian forces in Russia
• Allegedly, the Russian organizations “Russian Volunteer Corps” (RDC) and the Legion “Freedom of Russia” announced that they had crossed the border of the Russian Federation and entered the territory of the Belgorod region. In addition, there were reports of attacks by unidentified units in the Bryansk region. In the first case, the transition took place in one place, and in the other case, in two places. According to Russian sources, two tanks and nine armored vehicles took part in the attack on the Belgorod region. First of all, after crossing the border, the village of Kozinka was captured. According to unconfirmed reports, then the troops occupied the settlements of Glotovo and Gora-Podil.
• Reports of continued attacks continued on 23 May. In particular, it was reported about the impact of drones on the building of the FSB in Belgorod. On the same day, there were reports of the entry of unknown units into the territory of the Bryansk region. In this regard, security measures have been tightened in these areas. For example, in the Bryansk region, a meeting of law enforcement agencies was announced. In addition, in the border area, in the Sevsky, Suzemsky, Trubchevsky and Klimovsky districts, the presence of the National Guard was strengthened. In the Belgorod region, a counter-terrorist operation regime has been established, the essence of which is the establishment of additional restrictive measures and increased control. Under these conditions, the work of enterprises and organizations whose activities are associated with explosive, radioactive, chemical and biologically hazardous materials also stops.
• According to unconfirmed reports, more than 3,000 servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces and more than 1,000 special forces, as well as equipment, were transferred to the border areas. The ground forces were supported by artillery and aviation. The Russian Federation announced the restoration of control over the territory on May 23.
• As a result of the incident, a situation has developed in which the Russian Federation, in theory, should strengthen its military presence in the border areas. Also, Russia should be prepared for the repetition of such attacks. Therefore, the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions cannot be left without the cover of troops. This situation plays into the hands of Ukraine, since the units intended for the front may end up in other directions. Belgorod is located 40 kilometers from the border. The city is an important transport hub, which also has military infrastructure, including storage depots for tactical nuclear weapons. Thus, this is a logical direction for military pressure from Ukraine. This attack sends a signal that the territory of the Russian Federation may be attacked in the future, and this creates dilemmas for the Russian leadership, which must decide on a reaction.
On the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus
• Within the framework of the Congress of the Council of Ministers of Defense of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a bilateral meeting with his counterpart from the Republic of Belarus (RB) Viktor Khrenin. The latter said that Belarus is interested in the further development of the strategic partnership with the Russian Federation in the defense sector. Shoigu and Khrenin signed documents on the placement of tactical nuclear weapons in a special storage facility on the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
• The Russian Federation must build a storage facility for nuclear weapons by 1 July. In preparation for this event, the Belarusian Su-25 attack aircraft were again adapted to carry nuclear charges. In addition, the Iskander crews of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus were trained in the operation and maintenance of nuclear weapons in Russia. According to Shoigu, the Russian Federation does not transfer nuclear weapons to Belarus, the final control and the decision on its use remain with Russia. Ensuring the security of the union state in the current military-political situation may require additional measures, Shoigu added.
• Probably, Russia is trying in this way to influence and put pressure on Western countries and NATO so that the latter refuse to support Ukraine. The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus should take place right on the eve of the NATO summit, which will be held in Vilnius on July 11-12.
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