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Opta Favors Liverpool Over Chelsea in Carabao Cup Clash at Anfield

Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield in Wednesday's Carabao Cup fourth-round tie, with both Premier League giants managing heavy squad rotation and significant injury lists as they…

Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield in Wednesday's Carabao Cup fourth-round tie, with both Premier League giants managing heavy squad rotation and significant injury lists as they chase a place in the quarter-finals under their respective Basque managers.

Anfield Showdown Highlights EFL Cup Last 16

The fourth round of the English EFL Cup brings together two of the competition’s heavyweight contenders as Liverpool welcome Chelsea to Merseyside on Wednesday evening. Kick-off is set for 8 p.m. GMT, with domestic silverware representing an immediate opportunity for both managers to secure their first trophies since taking charge in the summer.

Opta’s pre-match simulations make the hosts favorites, giving Liverpool a 52.6% probability of advancing in front of a home crowd at Anfield. History in the competition also favors the Reds, who defeated Chelsea in the 2024 final when Virgil van Dijk sealed a 1–0 extra-time victory. Chelsea enter the fixture looking to overturn recent history, having not won at Anfield since March 2021.

Neither club will want to be eliminated in the fourth round, and both squads hold genuine ambitions of winning the entire competition. For Xabi Alonso, the trip represents a return to a place he once called home, having represented the Reds as a player from 2004 until 2009 before making the move to Real Madrid.

Contrasting Domestic Fortunes Shape the Tie

Both teams arrive on Merseyside carrying divergent momentum from the weekend. Liverpool secured a solid 2–0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion, moving into the top four of the Premier League and extending a run of eight wins and a draw from their last 10 outings across all competitions.

That weekend loss to Spurs compounded defensive vulnerabilities for Xabi Alonso’s side. The Blues have conceded 15 goals in eight league games, representing the worst defensive record among the current top five in the English top flight. Chelsea’s defensive record across all competitions shows they have conceded over 1.5 goals in seven of their 10 matches, while Liverpool have consistently found the back of the net, scoring over 1.5 goals in each of their last four competitive fixtures.

Iraola and Alonso Weigh Squad Rotation Amid Injury Crises

Congested fixtures dictate that both managers will alter their line-ups. Andoni Iraola confirmed that changes are mandatory given the physical demands on his squad, though he emphasized his desire to keep the club’s trophy ambitions alive at a pre-match press conference.

Andoni Iraola explained that he is making changes from game to game in both the Carabao Cup and the Champions League because he believes it is almost mandatory.

However, manager Andoni Iraola offered a positive update on midfielder Florian Wirtz, who twisted his ankle against Brighton but is expected to feature.

Liverpool vs chelsea
Photo: MyBettingSites.co.uk

He was quite fine, Florian – I’m quite optimistic that he will be available.

Andoni Iraola, Liverpool Head Coach

Winger Víctor Muñoz is also a doubt for the hosts as he deals with a knee problem and pain resulting from a knock received against Brentford.

Chelsea face even steeper personnel hurdles. Playmaker Cole Palmer is suspended for the fixture following his dismissal for two yellow cards against Tottenham. In addition, Joao Pedro is out for a few weeks with a thigh injury. Alonso confirmed his absence ahead of the match, stating he is not ready for the upcoming games.

Alonso Press Conference | Liverpool vs Chelsea | Carabao Cup 4th Round | 27/10/26 | CFC 26/27

He’s not ready for the next games.

Xabi Alonso, Chelsea Manager

The visitors are also missing Reece James, who underwent successful knee surgery that will keep him sidelined until the new year, and goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, who remains unavailable following surgery on a fractured jaw.

Press Conference: Liverpool vs Chelsea | Carabao Cup Preview