2024-05-17 13:42:32
Creator: Elchin Alioglu
Supply: Pattern
In latest days, the processes within the South Caucasus have accelerated. Geopolitical occasions and geoeconomic occasions are competing with one another. States, organizations and politicians far outdoors the area try to reap the benefits of all of the means at their disposal to fulfill their mercantile pursuits.
There are additionally modifications within the dynamics of occasions. From the top of the Second Karabakh Battle till the top of final yr, the USA, France and the European Union (EU) had been in search of methods to maximise their affect within the area and had been making ready numerous eventualities. Organizations with states that think about the monolithic cooperation of Azerbaijan and Turkey and really shut alliance relations as a risk to their pursuits step by step turned lively. After all, Russia and Iran, that are the states of the area, have collectively tried to forestall the weakening of their place within the South Caucasus, and this course of continues even now.
Occasions in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia are on fully completely different tracks.
Let’s check out the scenario within the South Caucasus.
1. Azerbaijan’s international coverage relies on the technique of increasing affect levers and reaching targets inside the framework of the normative foundations of worldwide regulation, together with the safety of positions. On November 10, 2020, official Baku, which solved the decades-long issues associated to the separatism of Karabakh Armenians and the occupation of Armenia, despatched the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent (RSK) to the territory of Karabakh on November 10, 2020, based on the phrases of the tripartite declaration signed between Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation and Armenia.
The standing of the RSK was not authorized and ratified by the Azerbaijani parliament: exactly due to this, Baku was assured that it will have the ability to expel the Russian servicemen from the nation sooner than 2025, when their phrases of service will expire.
Official Moscow and Yerevan, quite the opposite, hoped for an extension of the settlement on the time period of workplace in order that the Russian peacekeepers would keep so long as attainable on the territory of Azerbaijan.
However the occasions within the area deviated from the course deliberate by Moscow, and Armenia’s failure to cover its technique of integration into the West modified the scenario. So as to not fully lose the opportunity of efficient affect within the South Caucasus, Russia strove to unexpectedly withdraw the RSK from the territory of Azerbaijan, thereby minimizing the interference of the West within the direct negotiations within the route of Baku-Iravan.
By withdrawing the RSK, Russia clearly despatched a message to the West that “we don’t intervene within the processes, and we is not going to let you intervene both.”
Azerbaijan is utilizing the brand new scenario skillfully and on the most stage. Negotiating and establishing direct contacts with Armenia with none worldwide mediation mechanism, official Baku is holding concrete discussions with Armenia relating to the signing of a peace settlement, the demarcation and delimitation of the traditional state border, the restoration of transport communications and the commissioning of recent logistics routes, in addition to different essential points.
The truth that discussions and negotiations are on a constructive course strengthens Baku’s place much more. Furthermore, contemplating that Azerbaijan has regular and ample relations with all different neighboring states, Baku is presently making an attempt to cut back the geopolitical stress within the South Caucasus area, take regular steps in direction of the institution of steady situations and reduce the chance of escalation in any type.
2. The occasions in Georgia, particularly the protests that turned extra lively after the adoption of the draft regulation “On transparency of international affect” within the nation’s parliament, point out that the strain in Tbilisi is not going to lower within the close to future. The necessities within the draft regulation relating to the transparency of actions of foreign-funded organizations and the necessity for them to submit monetary reviews to state establishments are fully regular and logical provisions.
Giving Georgia the standing of a candidate for membership within the European Union, particularly the top of the 44-day Second Karabakh Battle with the capitulation of Armenia, after which the departure of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan, and many others. such processes led to the acute activation of powers outdoors the area within the South Caucasus. On the identical time, Russia and Iran, which don’t intend to permit the West to extend its affect within the area, have additionally develop into lively.
Contemplating all this, we should not overlook one level: Azerbaijan wants an unbiased, sovereign and unbiased Georgia.
3. The scenario in Armenia could also be one of many principal causes for the rise in stress within the South Caucasus. The assembly between US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, President of the European Fee Ursula von der Leyen and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels on April 5 confirmed that Yerevan is dedicated to a coverage oriented in direction of the West, and the Washington-Paris-Brussels trio is utilizing Armenians as a device to affect Russia. He absolutely revealed his intention to expel from the South Caucasus area.
After the failure of the Washington and Brussels platforms within the negotiation course of aimed toward signing the ultimate peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the West made many makes an attempt to revive its positions, however couldn’t obtain severe success.
The reason being easy: though Baku has repeatedly emphasised the perniciousness of France’s damaging and damaging function in our area, Washington and Brussels have taken an observer place. Thus, they attempt to achieve new positions, however it’s not possible to get well the losses.
That is evidenced by the habits of Russia. By eradicating the RSK from Azerbaijan, Baku largely achieved the need of Moscow, which is making an attempt to guard its relations with Yerevan by eradicating its army personnel from the traditional state border with Azerbaijan and the airport in Yerevan.
The origin, motive and prospects of the protest actions which have been ongoing in Armenia since April 19, the demarcation and delimitation of the conditional state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the liberation of 4 villages within the Tavush (Tovuzgala) district and the handing over of 32 years of occupation to Azerbaijan, and the method of signing the peace settlement are recognized.
If Armenia doesn’t attempt to scale back its dependence on international powers, it would face severe issues.
It isn’t convincing that Armenians can overcome these difficulties.