Pro-Russian parties could win elections in three eastern German states, giving Putin a narrow victory and more influence in the country, Politico reports.
According to polls, pro-Russian parties can celebrate victory in the three eastern German states of Bradenburg, Saxony and Thuringia. Elections will be held here in September, and two of them are already scheduled for this Sunday.
The pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a strong chance of a big victory in the election, while the recently formed left-wing alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is surging in the polls.
This means Moscow could regain a firm foothold in much of the former East Germany, a region it dominated for decades during the Cold War.
If the predictions come true at the polls, the results will cause great concern across Germany. A victory for the extremists would reveal the extent to which the German political establishment’s efforts to restore the country’s East-West divide have failed, and would fundamentally shake Berlin’s already shaky tripartite coalition.
A victory would also mean a personal victory for V. Putin. According to the latest polls, pro-Moscow parties on the right and left side of the political spectrum should gather at least 50 percent. votes in all regions.
In one of the states, Thuringia, even 65 percent is predicted for these parties. votes, and the AfD should collect 30 percent. of votes.
The defeat of the current coalition
While not all parties are openly pro-Russian like the AfD, they are united by two narratives pushed by the far right. They argue that NATO is to blame for the war in Ukraine and that a peaceful solution would have been possible if only the West had taken diplomacy seriously.
Germany’s main ruling parties at the national level, the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP), were pushed into the background, with polls predicting a combined result of around 12 percent in Saxony and Thuringia and 27 percent in Brandenburg. of votes.
Even with the inclusion of Germany’s largest centrist force, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the predicted overall result of the parties does not exceed 50%.
It is a remarkable setback for the centrist parties that have shaped East German political life since reunification.
20th century In the early 1990s, West Germany’s ruling powers effectively colonized the East, sending their political veterans to run Saxony and other lands, according to Politico.
Even today, more than 40 percent representatives of the highest level of the political class in Germany’s eastern lands are of Western origin.
The rapid rise of the AfD and other populist parties in the East shows that this strategy has not worked. Both the Greens and the Free Democrats, the smallest of the three parties in Germany’s national coalition, could be kicked out of parliament in all three states, according to the latest polls. Parties must win at least five percent of the vote to win seats.
“Democratic parties – the Social Democrats, the Krik Dems and even the Greens – have never been able to establish themselves in the East in the way they have in the West, so it is of course much easier for a party like the AfD to break through and take advantage of a more volatile electorate,” said Johannes Kieß, a sociologist at the University of Leipzig.
Reunification grievances
Although reunification has fundamentally changed the economy of the former East Germany and raised living standards to levels unimaginable under communism, there is still resentment in many parts of the country that the West has effectively taken over this part of the country.
Since German reunification, the region has lost 15 percent. population, as many former East German residents, especially women, left for the West.
Disappointment over such developments is often compounded by the country’s politicians, who view the region, which today has only a fifth of the population of the former West Germany, as the “other”.
“In the East you have to explain a little more than in the West, but I’m happy to do it and I like to drive there,” Christian Democrat leader Frydrich Merz said in May, referring to his party’s tough stance on Russia.
He added that he is aiming for the top spot in all three lands, but that is likely out of reach now. Even in Saxony, where according to some polls the Christian Democrats are leading by a small margin, according to the latest data, the AfD is slowly making inroads.
One of the reasons Merz’s party remains competitive in the region is that Christian Democrat Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer opposes spending billions in military aid to Ukraine and favors peace talks between Moscow and Kiev, a central focus of his campaign.
in 2021 the politician also visited Moscow and invited V. Putin to visit Dresden, where the Russian leader was stationed when the Berlin Wall fell.
“It would be a great honor for me, Your Excellency, to welcome you to Saxony,” M. Kretschmer told the Kremlin host at the time.
Anti-Western propaganda has been carried out for decades
The fact that even one of East Germany’s leading conservatives was willing to bow to Putin shows the extent to which Russian narratives have taken root in the region, Politico says.
Even if the majority of East Germans have no illusions about Putin, the population still needs to overcome decades of anti-Western propaganda. For many of them, Moscow is no worse than Washington, which populist politicians accuse of behind-the-scenes actions to achieve their own goals in Ukraine.
“The US is a fading superpower fighting to preserve its global hegemony,” Sahra Wagenknecht, a left-wing firebrand, said last month.
Most left-wing politicians in the East are centered around Sahra Wagenknecht and the Left Party, the successor to the former East German Communist Party.
True, according to Politico, they do not advocate for V. Putin himself, but they often advocate for peace.
“We need a European peace order that includes Russia,” Bodo Ramelow, the current prime minister of Thuringia and one of the more critical voices in the left party, said this month. “All participating countries should agree on a non-aggression pact and create a defense community.”
Critics dismiss such calls as naïve. They say the push for the West to cut off arms supplies and for Ukraine to stop fighting and surrender territory ultimately plays to Moscow’s advantage and legitimizes its invasion of Ukraine.
The biggest threat is the AfD
The bigger threat, however, remains the AfD, which, if it wins in all three German states, would trigger a political earthquake that would reverberate far beyond Germany’s borders.
Some say that prospect is more likely after last week’s knife attack in Sollingen, allegedly carried out by a Syrian linked to the Islamic State group.
The AfD’s ties to Moscow are well documented. Before June German authorities revealed what they say was a Russian influence operation involving one of AfD’s main candidates during the European Parliament elections.
Nevertheless, the party took second place with 16 percent. votes and performed particularly well in the east. Many AfD high-ranking figures do not hide their support for Putin’s authoritarian regime.
Bjorn Hocke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, who many consider the party’s spiritual godfather, has said that if he ever becomes German chancellor, his first trip will be to Moscow.
If that ever happens – and it’s highly likely – it’s more likely that Putin will visit it first.
Before relations between Moscow and Berlin soured, Mr. Putin often visited Germany, including his former home city in the East.
“I’ll be honest, I come to Dresden with a special feeling,” he told the audience at the 2009 visit to the city to receive the Order of Saint George, an award intended to honor outstanding personalities who “fight for good in the world”.
“It is undoubtedly one of the cultural centers of Europe, a city with a rich history, which has its own special charm,” said V. Putin.
Parenthetical phrase “Politician” inf.
2024-09-01 19:46:38