2023-07-16 04:13:36
Oil refinery in Houston, Texas, USA. (Photo: AFP/VNA)
Oil and gas prices in the global market have stabilized, returning to their previous averages Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The share of renewable energy gradually expands, but has not been able to replace fossil fuel sources even though renewable energy has become the dominant energy source.
On July 4, wholesale electricity prices in Germany fell below zero within hours as renewable energy supplies hit a record high output.
Suppliers are willing to pay consumers instead of stopping production, as this would be more expensive.
This is not an isolated case, in many European countries such as Denmark, the Netherlands, and Finland, an extremely rare phenomenon has now begun to appear more and more, reflecting the rapid change in energy structure. energy in Europe and signal a new trend in the development of the world energy industry.
Global energy prices temporarily stabilized when economic gloom
According to a report released by the London-based Energy Institute (Energy Institut), in collaboration with financial consulting groups KPMG and Kearney, on June 26, despite world market turmoil due to high prices. and supply difficulties, global energy consumption in 2022 will still increase by 1.1% over the previous year.
This increase is slower than 2021, up to 5.5% – the year when the world economy recovered strongly because it just stepped out of the COVID-19 epidemic. However, compared to 2019, humanity has used 2.8% more energy.
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The map of consumer demand does not have a uniform shade. While Europe and the former Soviet republics saw a decrease in consumption – Europe alone fell by 3.8% – it increased sharply in other places, especially Asia-Pacific.
Within 10 years, the share of regional consumption increased from 40% to 46% of the world, while Europe decreased by 3%. China accounts for more than a quarter of global energy demand, nearly twice the size of the US despite its smaller economy.
Compared to a year ago, the global energy market is less tense. After the shock wave spread from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has gradually stabilized its supply thanks to the diversification of suppliers and sharply reduced consumption with an energy-saving policy.
Growth in China and some emerging economies are forecast to be lower than expected, also putting pressure on oil prices.
Newly released market data shows that China’s consumer price index in June was almost stable compared to the same period last year, signaling the risk of the world’s second-largest economy possibly falling into deflation. .
As a result, the world oil price fluctuated relatively slightly despite the OPEC + group’s signal to cut supply.
Currently, oil prices are about 2.2% lower than at the beginning of the year and 26% lower than a year ago.
As for gas, the price traded on the Dutch TTF has increased in recent days, but only a tenth of the record high set on August 21 last year and half of it at the beginning of the year. Basically, oil price and gas has returned to pre-conflict levels.
In the context of unpredictable world geopolitics, it is difficult to determine the world energy market trend because it depends on many unpredictable variables, especially the conflict in UKraine and the economic situation in China. , as well as weather developments.
The Director General of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol did not rule out the possibility that energy prices will explode again in the winter, if the Chinese economy overcomes a difficult period to accelerate again, leading to the country has to massively import oil and gas, combined with the cold weather at the end of the year. However, this scenario is somewhat extreme.
The EU, the epicenter of the global energy market, will continue to fill gas reserves and connect countries, while maintaining an energy-saving policy.
While this does not guarantee the continent is completely immune from the possibility of a shortage of heating fuel in the winter, it does somewhat reverse the risk of sudden price increases like last year.
According to market analysis firm RBC Capital Markets, the EU will fulfill its goal of filling 90% of the warehouse gas at the end of next August, three months earlier than planned.
Recycled energy affirm your position
The good news is that according to a report by the Energy Research Institute, renewable energy – wind power, solar power and excluding hydropower – has had an increasingly high share in the world energy basket, increasing by 1% in the past year alone. within a year to 7.5%.
However, fossil energy sources, including gas, coal, and oil are still dominant, 82%, and only decreased very little compared to the previous year.
However, there are quite a few bright spots on the global energy picture. In Europe, 2023 marks an important turning point. This past May, for the first time in history, solar and wind power produced more electricity than fossil fuels in an entire month.
Wind farm near Toulouse, France. (Photo: AFP/VNA)
In the EU’s mixed energy basket, renewables accounted for 29% in the last two months, about the same as gas, coal and oil combined.
From the second half of 2022, the EU has succeeded in reducing the share of fossil energy from 40% to 30%.
In mid-June, the member countries reached an agreement, aiming to increase the share of renewable energy to 42% of the global energy basket, including nuclear power.
In China, renewable energy has attracted nearly 500 billion USD in investment capital, accounting for 55% of the total world capital.
According to calculations by the research organization Global Energy Monitor, if all projects are underway or have been announced to be completed, in the next few years China is likely to nearly double its wind and solar power output, to 1,200 GW from about 750 GW today, five years earlier than the target.
China’s National Energy Administration predicts that from now to 2025, wind, solar, hydro and nuclear power output will meet a third of domestic demand, compared with 28.8 percent in 2020.
Not only is it an inexhaustible source of energy, wind power and solar power are less affected by raw material prices, which have fluctuated sharply in recent years due to geostrategic impacts.
However, in some countries, investing in renewable energy is not necessarily attractive, because it depends on the specific location.
Recently published figures show that production costs have fallen sharply in recent years, but in France many wind power parks are located in inconvenient locations, only achieving a return on capital after tax of less than 5 %, due to less than 2,170 hours of power generation time per year.
For parks with longer power generation time, over 2,400 hours/year, the highest profit can be over 10%.
Tien Nhat (VNA/Vietnam+)
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