It can go into convulsions soon,
Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines’ national weather bureau, warned in September, describing the Pacific Ocean as burning with fever.
Escalating Storm Intensity in the Pacific
The Pacific Ocean is experiencing record-high sea surface temperatures, which researchers use as high-octane fuel for developing weather systems. Last month, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific soared to 4C above normal, the highest since records began in 1949. This surpassed the previous record of 3.6C, set in December 1997, according to data monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the total intensity of a season’s storms, is projected to reach nearly double the 30-year average for East and South East Asia this year. The World Meteorological Organization and regional weather bureaus have confirmed that these conditions are generating stronger and more erratic storms throughout the region.
Typhoon Champi and Other Storms Strain Local Infrastructure
In recent months, Super Typhoon Champi, with winds reaching 295 km/h (193 mph), skirted Taiwan, causing flight cancellations and coastal disruptions.
Other recent weather events have strained local infrastructure:
- Japan: In June, the threat of two storms approaching the eastern seaboard simultaneously led to the precautionary evacuation of one million people. In August, Typhoon Chan-Hom defied typical patterns by traveling across the country from east to west. Around 15,000 households in Japan’s southern Okinawa islands experienced power outages.
- China: Tropical Storm Narra flooded communities in southern China, followed in August by Super Typhoon Dolphin, which caused significant casualties. Later that month, Typhoon Saudel made landfall in three south-eastern cities within a single week, shutting transport networks and forcing thousands to evacuate.
- Philippines: Coastal archipelagos have faced battering waves, localized landslips, and severe agricultural damage. In the Batanes archipelago, coastal highways were closed as enormous waves battered the shoreline.
Predicting Future Climate Risks
Climatologists project the strong El Niño phenomenon to persist through early 2027, heightening climate risk forecasts across the Western Pacific. Manila-based climatologist Rafaela Jane Delfino and her colleagues have simulated the effects of warmer conditions on the Philippines’ most recent monster storms, including 2013’s Super Typhoon Haiyan.
Governments in Manila, Beijing, Taipei, and Tokyo are now bolstering emergency response frameworks in response to infrastructure costs and tragic losses. China has upgraded its monitoring systems. Meanwhile, the Philippines and its neighbours are focusing on supporting farmers to mitigate food production disruptions.
Despite these efforts, authorities acknowledge that the long-term outlook remains complex. Japan’s ability to evacuate people swiftly is well-resourced, but officials warn that such responses would be far more challenging in neighbouring countries as the region continues to endure repeated weather emergencies.