Islamabad – Pakistan’s agricultural sector is bracing for the upcoming Rabi and Kharif crop seasons with a cautiously optimistic outlook, as the government anticipates no shortages of essential fertilizers despite ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The Ministry of National Food Security and Research released a situation report Friday outlining a stable supply-demand alignment, a key factor in maintaining food security for the nation. This assessment comes as the escalation in the Middle East raises concerns about disruptions to global energy and agrifood systems, potentially impacting fertilizer availability and prices worldwide.
The report indicates that Pakistan’s fertilizer sector is currently well-positioned to meet domestic demand. Production is satisfying 90 to 95 percent of the country’s total urea requirements, with imports covering the remaining gap. This robust production capacity, coupled with strategic stock buffers, is expected to prevent shortages during both the Rabi 2025-26 and Kharif 2026 seasons. Maintaining a consistent supply of natural gas – between 700 and 800 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) – is identified as critical to sustaining this stability, as gas is a primary feedstock in fertilizer production.
Urea and DAP Availability: Current Status and Projections
Current data reveals a comfortable surplus of urea during the ongoing Rabi season. Availability exceeds 3.5 million tons, surpassing the demand of approximately 3.3 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 150,000 to 200,000 tons. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) availability also remains healthy, exceeding 700,000 tons against a demand of around 650,000 tons. Looking ahead to Kharif 2026, projections indicate continued sufficiency. Urea availability is estimated at 3 to 3.2 million tons, against an expected demand of 2.9 to 3 million tons, while DAP availability is projected at 750,000 to 800,000 tons, meeting the anticipated demand of about 700,000 tons. These figures ensure a buffer of 50,000 to 100,000 tons for both fertilizers.
Domestic Prices Remain Competitive
A significant benefit for Pakistani farmers is the relatively stable domestic fertilizer pricing. Urea currently sells for approximately Rs3,700 to Rs4,000 per 50kg bag, considerably lower than international prices, which range from Rs5,500 to Rs6,000 per bag. Similarly, DAP prices domestically are between Rs11,500 to Rs12,500 per bag, while international equivalents exceed Rs14,000. This price differential helps to reduce input costs for farmers and supports agricultural productivity. According to the Statista, fertilizer consumption in Pakistan has been steadily increasing in recent years.
Key Players in Pakistan’s Fertilizer Industry
Pakistan’s fertilizer production is dominated by a handful of major companies. Fauji Fertiliser Company leads with a urea production capacity exceeding 2.5 million tons annually. Engro Fertilisers follows closely with around 2.3 million tons, while Fatima Fertiliser contributes 700,000–800,000 tons. Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim specializes in DAP production, with a capacity of approximately 650,000 tons. The sector’s total urea production capacity stands at approximately 7 million tons per year.
Gas Supply: A Critical Dependency
The fertilizer sector’s reliance on natural gas is substantial, consuming nearly 700–800 mmcfd. Approximately 60 to 65 percent of this gas is supplied by Sui Northern Gas Pakistan Limited (SNGPL), with the remainder sourced from dedicated or diverted gas supplies. The report highlights the sector’s resilience, noting that even with the temporary shutdown of one or two plants, remaining capacity can still meet over 85 to 90 percent of national demand. This redundancy provides a degree of protection against unforeseen disruptions.
Over the past five years, urea consumption in Pakistan has grown from approximately 6.0 million tons to 6.8 to 7.0 million tons, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 2 to 3 percent. DAP consumption has also increased, rising from about 1.1 million tons to nearly 1.4 million tons, indicating a CAGR of 4 to 5 percent. Annual urea demand typically ranges between 6.5 and 7 million tons, while DAP demand fluctuates between 1.2 and 1.5 million tons. The seasonal demand patterns also vary, with urea consumption peaking during the Rabi season (55 to 60 percent of annual usage) due to wheat requirements, and DAP demand increasing during Kharif (60 percent of annual consumption).
Pakistan cultivates approximately 22–23 million hectares annually across two major seasons. Wheat occupies roughly 9 million hectares during Rabi, alongside 2 to 3 million hectares dedicated to gram and oilseeds. During Kharif, rice is grown on around 3 million hectares, cotton on 2 to 2.5 million hectares, and sugarcane on over 1.2 million hectares. These figures underscore the significant role of fertilizers in supporting the country’s agricultural output.
The Ministry of National Food Security and Research will continue to monitor the situation closely, particularly in light of the evolving geopolitical landscape. The next official update on fertilizer availability and pricing is expected in early June, following the completion of the Rabi harvest and ahead of the Kharif planting season. Farmers and stakeholders are encouraged to stay informed through official channels for the latest information.
This report provides a reassuring outlook for Pakistan’s agricultural community, but continued vigilance and proactive planning will be essential to navigate potential challenges and ensure long-term food security. Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the fertilizer situation in Pakistan.
