It is a bit strange to hear Russia complaining that it is surrounded on all sides by powers that want evil, but this is not new. At the height of its territorial expansion, in the middle of the 20th century, Russia controlled a landmass that stretched from the Pacific Ocean to the North Sea, across 11 time zones.
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When the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, the Soviet Union’s defenders in the West explained to anyone who would listen that it was a strictly defensive move. The Russians feared that they would be surrounded by hostile countries. The encirclement complex of a country spanning half of Europe and a quarter of Asia probably requires a very long psychoanalysis. But in the meantime, woe to her neighbors.
Vladimir Putin went to war in the name of the need to defend against the expansion of the NATO alliance to the east. A few days before his army crossed the border, Putin flew to Beijing, and won the support of the ruler of China, Xi Jinping. China joined Russia in opposing the expansion of NATO, And they called “for the North Atlantic Alliance to get rid of the ideological approaches of the Cold War days.”
Needless to say, it was an awkward chat. In the Cold War, two ideological blocs faced each other – totalitarian communist and democratic capitalist. Today there is nothing ideological in the West’s opposition to Russia’s political and territorial goals.
Japan is waking up from a long slumber
And even though it is absolutely clear that Putin ended by saying to win the war, there is no escaping the assumption that he knows that he made a mistake. His military adventure was indeed intended to thwart the “encirclement of Russia” by the West, but it is clear that he achieved the complete opposite. The encirclement he warned about is happening not only from the western side of Russia, but also from its eastern side, at the other end of the world, in the Pacific Ocean. His Ukrainian adventure helped wake up the third largest economic power in the world, Japan, from a long slumber.
Japan’s awakening did not happen overnight, and is not only related to the war. China’s and North Korea’s lengthening goals are helping the Japanese to concentrate, encouraging them to finance a massive expansion of their military capability. But the distance separating Japan from Russia is smaller than that separating it from the Chinese mainland. If Russia loosens its yoke in the West, Japan has reason to fear that it will loosen its yoke in the East as well. And even if she doesn’t unburden the yoke personally, she will trust her hands to unburdening the burdens of others.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida came to Washington last week to talk mainly about defense cooperation. He received a blessing from Joe Biden. “The US has a full and comprehensive commitment to our alliance,” the US president told Kishida and hugged his shoulders. Such physical gestures are not common for Japanese people, but this was Shikida’s desire.
“Let me be crystal clear,” President Joe Biden said as he sat beside Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. “The United States is fully, thoroughly, completely committed to the alliance.” https://t.co/hASZYYTuTh
– CNN International (@cnni) January 15, 2023
On the eve of his arrival in Washington, Kishida presented a military buildup plan of roughly $320 billion over the next five years. It will jump Japan to third place in the world table of military expenditures, after the US and China. It will give it for the first time ever a ballistic capability.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, during his visit to the US this week / Photo: Associated Press, Alex Brandon
After World War II, the United States imposed a pacifist constitution on Japan, which prohibited it from maintaining a regular army. Over the years, the Japanese found a way around the ban, at least partially. But they were careful not to equate an offensive color with “Japan’s Self-Defense Force.” This matter was certainly to the liking of most Japanese – Japan’s name continued to rhyme with brutal aggression for many years after the war.
A public opinion poll in a Japanese newspaper last month showed us how big the change is. 56% of the respondents supported an offensive capability, which would allow Japan to strike military targets beyond its borders, if threatened. This is not a whim, or soaring nationalist sentiments. This is a growing recognition of the seriousness of the dangers lurking for Japan from powers striving to change the territorial status quo: China wants to conquer Taiwan, North Korea wants to conquer South Korea, and Russia is conquering Ukraine.
And thanks to Putin: Holland and Finland from neutrality
A noticeable change in values has taken place in democratic countries in the last 11 months: they have decided to open their wallets. For years, the US urged them to devote more resources to their national defense. The magic threshold was 2% of GDP (Israel, for example, devotes 5.17% to its defense, Russia 4.08%, the US 3.48%). The democracies evaded. They found excuses. They winked.
To whom thanks, to whom a blessing? To Vladimir Putin. He helped everyone concentrate. The roadblocks to 2% disappeared overnight. The detailed explanations that there is currently no money went up in the smoke of eastern Ukraine and were buried under the ruins of Arya.
Russia understood what Kishida was doing in Washington. Its former president, Dmitri Medvedev, declared that Kishida cast a disgrace on Japan when he condemned the Russian invasion, and he has no choice but to protest this disgrace through Kharkiri. That’s right.
Russia’s ex-president Medvedev calls for Japan PM’s ritual suicidehttps://t.co/7ilSyhkueR
– The Mainichi (Japan Daily News) (@themainichi) January 15, 2023
This week the prime minister of a small country, which usually does not seek attention in geopolitical matters, also visited Washington. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told Joe Biden that the Netherlands has decided to spend another 2.7 billion dollars to help Ukraine, and will send Patriot missiles to defend its skies. Furthermore, Ruta had to convince German Chancellor Olaf Schulz to join him in building up Ukraine’s capabilities.
Biden’s meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte this week / Photo: Associated Press, Carolyn Kaster
Across the ocean, in Davos, spoke Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland – a country even smaller than the Netherlands, with a long tradition of neutrality. Thanks to Putin, Finland is no longer neutral. “We don’t know when the war will end, but we must ensure that it ends with the victory of Ukraine,” Marin said. “If Russia wins, the message will be that it is possible to attack another country, invade, conquer and leave.”
From Davos, Finland’s PM Sanna Marin says «we don’t know when the war ends – but Ukraine has to win. I don’t see another choice.» pic.twitter.com/EapDkqbAP6
– Maria Tadeo (@mariatad) January 17, 2023
The West turned Putin’s bowl upside down
The historical instincts of both, Holland and Finland, were neutral. Holland was neutral when Hitler invaded it, in 1940. Finland mortgaged its foreign policy to Russia until a little over 30 years ago, and did not dare to express its opinion on almost any subject. Nothing obliged them to strive to defeat Russia.
Nothing, except Putin’s adventures. The “encirclement ring”, which the Russian propaganda talks about, is upsetting to an extent that would have been unthinkable a year ago, when Russia’s war intentions faded away.
On Friday, dozens of Western defense ministers will gather at the American air base in Ramstein, Germany, to give advice on how to thwart the Russian plan. The very meeting of the ministers is evidence that a Western coalition, with its industrial, financial and military resources, turned Putin’s bowl upside down.
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