By @amatiz12
‘La Carrera al Sol’ arrives with an 81st edition that promises, mainly for what may be the only duel before the Tour between its two top favorites accompanied by a route faithful to its essence, offering a variety with wind, explosive heights, time trial and mountain, adding an innovation in the timed exercise.
Route
1,201 kilometers distributed in 8 stages, which are divided into 2 flat, 4 medium-mountain or undulating, 1 high-mountain and 1 time trial (by teams). A menu for all tastes that will diversify the entertainment between March 5 and 12.
Stage 1: The canopy › The canopy (169.4km)
A dizzying start on uncomfortable roads and many geographical accidents, ideal for showing off a puncheur. But be careful, throughout these more than 4 hours of effort, they will have to ascend the Cote de Milon-la-Chapelle twice, 500 meters at 12% on average, which undoubtedly falls into the category of wall, adding the detail that the last step is crowned 20 km from the finish line. Added to the fact that there will be an effort of 1300 meters at 5% later, it could be the ideal combination to see something else if some powerful block like Jumbo decides to shake things up.
Stage 2: Bazainville › Fontainebleau (163.7km)
One of the two days that should be resolved in a sprint… or maybe not? In this area of Yvelines and Loiret, wind gusts of up to 35 km/h are forecast, which will hit the peloton sideways in several sections. This without counting that it will be cloudy all day, with some showers. If it is decided to speed up the march, there is a probability of fans and the fans mean that a flat stage does not pass according to script, but with tactical alternatives that enrich the show since they alter the sprint and can affect the generals. Transition day does not look good.
stage 3 (CRE): Dampierre-en-Burly›Dampierre-en-Burly (32.2km)
The great innovation of the route, not only for resuming the team time trial, but also for modifying its evaluation method, since each runner will do their own time and will not be marked by the fourth man, as is usual. For this reason, the strategy will also vary, since surely each team with aspiration to the general classification will “reserve” its asset as much as possible, burning the other croners with powerful relays so that the leader makes his maximum effort in the shot and in the distance shortest possible. The approach will be essential in a day that, due to its change in regulations, could be decisive for the race. For that matter, UAE took Pogacar out of Strade to prepare for this stage and moved their roster to optimize their result there.
Stage 4: Saint-Amand-Montrond › The Lodge of the Guards (164.7km)
Be careful because although it seems like a simple uniport, the reality is that what precedes the final ascent can be dangerous due to the wind, again. More rain and 44 km/h gusts that will apparently be crossed, meaning that it is possible to have fans even before the climb. Already uphill, the wind should be more favorable. In detail about this mountainous challenge, the most important are the first 4.5 km that go at 9% and that hide 100 meters at 14%, hard enough to prove something. Then the final two kilometers are more stretched without first having another 500 meters at 8% that conclude with 300 from the finish line. A battle that can become interesting due to the possibility that many will reach the height.
Stage 5: Saint-Symphorien-sur-Coise › Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux (212.4km)
The first 50 kilometers are drawn so that a promising escape leaks out and the sprinters are worn down, but then everything flattens out and the pursuit should become easier, even if good rouleurs slip through. So most likely everything will be decided in a massive sprint.
Stage 6: Tourves › La Colle-sur-Loup (197.4km)
A beautiful part of walls, which with the right attitude can be very entertaining. They are basically explosive heights with maximum slopes between 17-20% that are ascended by narrow roads covered by the urbanity of the Alpes-Maritimes area. In addition, it is very likely that it will rain, so the wet asphalt, especially in fast and technical descents -very characteristic of this region- will increase the technical difficulty. One of the most worthwhile days.
Stage 7: Nice › Col de la Couillole (142.9km)
The “high mountain” stage, we put it in quotes since there is no challenge that is really classified at such a level. The day is relatively easy, as it is short, without much previous hardness, with pleasant weather and given to resolve in a final ascent without much altitude (1678m). La Couillole contains 16 km at 7%, an average gradient that is very constant, it does not vary much throughout the effort. A more defined requirement for Pogacar than Vingegaard, where yes, many things will be decided, but without giving a clear chance to the purest climbers who will largely depend on what those climbers with the most spark do.
Col de la Couillole:
Stage 8: Nice › Nice (118.4km)
We close with the traditional circuit in Nice, short and explosive, up and down constantly, without rest. Strategically, those who want to turn everything upside down must do the hard race at the beginning and prepare the assault on Cote de Peille, which, 50 km from the finish line and with steep slopes at its base, serves as the spearhead for the final stubbornness. For that matter, there Alberto Contador launched his offensive against Sergio Luis Henao in 2017 or Nairo Quintana against Egan Bernal in 2019. After that, depending on the numbers and reserves in the tank, the movement can be managed without panic or it can be disturbing. In Col de Eze is the final thrust before entering the popular streets of Nice to meet the new winner.
Favorites
Tadej Pogacar – Without being at his 100%, he played with his rivals in Jaén and Andalucía, opponents that must be clarified are of more spirit than those that Vingegaard confronted in Gran Camiño. His team has specially prepared the CRE, which may be his moon, they sent Bjerg and Novak to strengthen that area, without neglecting the mountain where Grosschartner, Novak and Wellens will lend a hand. The route suits him better than his opponent, as it is explosive and in terrain with comfortable efforts, where he is better than the Dane, who will start at a disadvantage in that sense.
Jonas Vingegaard – His preparation is “more formed” for having been at height for a month and already enjoying a competitive rhythm. Of course, a real referential will be this fight against his Slovenian counterpart. To counteract the aforementioned disadvantage that it has from the tour, there is a strong Jumbo that with Dennis, Tratnik or Van Hooydonck -who shone in Kuurne- can use the collective force to equalize the charges and even isolate Handsome on those explosive routes. For such a strategic race, the team is a good formula.
¿The time trial?
Although the calculated preparation of UAE for this stage should not be neglected, it cannot be ignored that their block is inferior in this aspect to that of the bees, who will have Edoardo Affini, Rohan Dennis and Tobias Foss -world champion- to take on he floats his Danish boss who in the past has already done better times than the young Slav. So what is predictable is that Jumbo will come out ahead, the enigma is to see if Emirates’ strategic planning will be good enough so that the differences are salvageable for the rest of the journey for Pogacar.
Aspirants
Today, Pogacar and Vingegaard play in another league, so we will distinguish those who will face them in this separate category:
Daniel Martinez – It seems to be the mortal who can give the most war to those mentioned due to the way he exhibited in Algarve, where he came out champion. In time trial he can limit damage, he is very explosive and so far he has shown that his strength is these stage laps. If they wanted to bet on an outsider, the Colombian is his best option.
Romain Bardet- He hasn’t looked bad in the Alps and the Ardeche classics, certainly the CRE will diminish him and that’s why he should look to move in the mountains. Not a win bet, but someone aiming for a solid result here.
Jack Haig – Neither brilliant nor disappointing when he was in Andalusia, also partly because of Landa and Buitrago’s hierarchy there. However, with full freedom here he can propose to find a top-5 that will strengthen his confidence for the Giro.
David Gaudu – He has started the season strong, even one-on-one against Alaphilippe. That’s why this explosive genre that the race proposes will suit him well and will give him a certain advantage over his opponents, it comes in shape. His problem will be the CRE.
Maximilian Schachmann – He will not be at his point, but Paris-Nice is his career and that is why he cannot be ruled out. Besides, because if he finds good legs, the line itself will provide him with the tools to make himself noticed.
Simon Yates – It flies when it wants to or when the irregularity allows it, so here it is a mystery. But in form, we well know that he is one of the few capable of putting aliens on the ropes. If that’s the case, he can aspire to something else.
Prediction
Despite the CRE, the route fits him in general, with a more affable terrain for him than for his greatest rival. Besides, he has defeated better rivals and is hungry for victory driven by his desire to make up for the setback of the Tour and what better than to continue on that path defeating who will be his great rival in the gala round. Tadej Pogacar It is my bet for Paris-Nice 2023.
Alejandro Matiz
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