Patriots Advance to Super Bowl LX After Nix Injury Shakes AFC Championship
The New England Patriots are heading to Super Bowl LX, propelled by a combination of their own strong play and a devastating injury to Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. Despite a valiant effort from the Broncos, the Patriots emerged victorious in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, capitalizing on Denver’s misfortune and solidifying their status as a top contender.
The matchup at Empower Field in Denver marked the sixth postseason clash between these two AFC powerhouses, but the first since the 2015 AFC Championship Game. While the Broncos historically held a 4-1 advantage in playoff meetings, this contest unfolded under dramatically different circumstances. Nix, who spearheaded Denver’s impressive 14-3 regular season and secured the No. 1 seed, suffered a broken ankle late in the Divisional Round victory over the Buffalo Bills, sidelining him for the remainder of the playoffs.
This left Jarrett Stidham, making his first start since Week 18 of the 2023 season, to lead a Broncos offense against a Patriots team that entered the game as 5.5-point road favorites, according to DraftKings. The betting lines shifted significantly following the Nix injury, with the Patriots becoming increasingly favored as game day approached. Had the Broncos been 5.5-point underdogs at kickoff, they would have been the largest home underdog in a conference championship game since 1970.
The game itself was expected to be a defensive struggle, with both teams ranking among the top four in scoring defense in the NFL. The total point projection settled at 40.5, trending towards the second-lowest in a conference championship game since the 2017 NFC Championship between the Eagles and Vikings, which closed at 39.
Despite a strong defensive showing from the Broncos, who boast the NFL’s best sack total with 71 over the regular season and playoffs, Stidham struggled to move the offense effectively. The Patriots’ pass protection, despite allowing a league-worst 10 sacks in the postseason, managed to contain the Broncos’ pass rush just enough. New England quarterback Drake Maye, however, did battle with ball security issues, fumbling six times throughout the playoffs – the most by any player in the first two games of the postseason.
The Broncos, despite their offensive challenges, have historically thrived in the underdog role. Since 1970, Denver boasts a 3-0 record as a home underdog in the playoffs and had won their last four games outright when facing a point spread, the longest active streak in the league. However, this time, the magic ran out.
New England’s success extended beyond the field. The Patriots finished the regular season with a 12-5 record against the spread, tied for the best in the league, and continued their dominance by covering in both playoff games. They now have the opportunity to become just the fifth team since 1970 to cover 15 or more games in a single season. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s squad also proved to be a formidable road team, going undefeated at 8-0 away from home during the regular season and posting a 7-1 record against the spread in those contests.
Looking ahead, the Patriots will face a tough opponent in the Super Bowl. However, their consistent performance, strong road record, and ability to capitalize on opportunities position them as a serious threat. A key player to watch will be tight end Hunter Henry, who has consistently exceeded expectations this season. In 10 of 19 games, Henry surpassed 43.5 receiving yards, including six of his last nine, and presents a favorable matchup against defenses that struggle to contain tight ends, as evidenced by the 115 combined receiving yards allowed to Buffalo’s tight end duo in the Divisional Round.
The Patriots’ journey to Super Bowl LX is a testament to their resilience and strategic prowess, and they will undoubtedly be a force to be reckoned with on the biggest stage.
