Negotiations between the powers and Iran over the Iranian nuclear project are at a dead end and there may not be a breakthrough that will lead to an agreement. The security community in Israel treats this with mixed feelings. On the one hand, Israel has reservations about an agreement that may be signed, in light of its various restrictions, and on the other hand, without the exclusive agreement, Iran will continue to approach the production of nuclear weapons. But doubt how much it all matters. The Biden administration does not seem to attach much and certainly not decisive importance to the Israeli position when it comes to negotiations with Iran.
The security community in Israel treats with mixed feelings the deadlock in negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue, but it does not seem that the Biden administration attaches much and certainly not decisive importance to the Israeli position in this matter.
Despite President Joe Biden’s sympathy for Israel and the connection and cooperation between Israel and the United States, in the past there was a closer connection between the Israeli government and the American administration.
In addition, Israel is now entering an election period, that is, political uncertainty, which it is not known when and how it will end. in fact Israel has been in a problematic state of political instability for several years now, which could continue for years to come. In the upcoming elections, unless there is a big surprise, even if a government is formed it will rely on a tiny majority, which will project negatively on the stability and power of the government, including in the eyes of the Biden government. This weak point puts Israel in a relatively weak position vis-à-vis the Biden administration.
The American patron is also aware that Israel is largely dependent on the United States, including on various issues concerning Iran. The Biden administration is restrained by Israel’s moves against Iran, as long as they do not undermine US policy toward Iran, which seeks to avoid escalation and strive for even a fragile status quo agreement with Iran, with all its problems.
Beyond that the whole Iranian issue does not play a central role in the agenda of the Biden administration, which suffers from a heavy and oppressive burden of complicated challenges. Some of them are in foreign policy, led by the war in Ukraine and the confrontation with China.
At the internal level, the Biden administration is trying to address weighty issues Such as rising fuel prices and inflation, the fear of recession, illegal immigration, the fight against abortion and the possession of weapons by the public and more. All this is a background to the congressional elections this coming November, which are expected to weaken, perhaps even substantially, the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and the Senate, which will of course have a negative impact on the Biden administration. For the Biden administration, this is the core of his problem, not the Iranian.
The Iranian issue does not play a major role in the agenda of the Biden administration, which suffers from a heavy and oppressive burden of complicated challenges. Some in foreign policy, especially the war in Ukraine and the confrontation with China, and some in the internal sphere.
Israel faces many different problems of its own, including politically and economically, but there is no more serious challenge than the possibility of Iran possessing nuclear weapons. This danger overshadows all other problems, with all their importance. Even if there is instability and political stagnation in Israel, a deep economic recession and even a third intifada, another round in the Gaza Strip and the like – None of these serious challenges will be as dangerous as a nuclear-armed Iran.
Israel can face sharp negative turns against it on the economic, political and security levels. It will be possible to repair them, even at a high price and in part. But if Iran has nuclear weapons, this will be an existing fact that cannot be changed and will have far-reaching and even existential negative consequences for Israel.
Biden was President Obama’s deputy. The Obama administration has not completely ruled out the military option against Iran, but it is doubtful whether it would have implemented it unless Iran was unequivocally on the verge of producing nuclear weapons. Biden said that as a last resort he would attack Iran, but this is not a particularly credible military option and it is doubtful how much the Biden administration will do so, for fear of degenerating into war.
Presenting any military option could have helped push Iran to reach an agreement that would better serve Israel, the United States and many other countries, including the Arab world. In doing so, the Biden administration is ignoring a basic Israeli interest in Iran, since Biden can afford it, given Israel’s weakness and its dependence on its American patron.
Presenting a military option could have pushed Iran to get a better deal. But the Biden administration ignores a basic Israeli interest in Iran. He can afford it in light of Israel’s weakness and its dependence on its American patron
The Biden administration is imposing sanctions on Iran, but despite Israel’s desire, it does not want to increase pressure on Iran to sign an agreement. The dramatic rise in fuel prices is troubling the Biden administration, and could cost it dearly in the November congressional election. In an attempt to bring down the price of oil, that is, fuel, and also as part of an effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia on this level, the Biden administration was forced to compromise on its policy in the Middle East. One of them concerns Iran, in order to increase oil exports from Iran and thus in the hope of lowering oil prices significantly.
Israel, unlike the United States, does not see Russia as a sworn opponent, and this was reflected in the somewhat vague Israeli approach to the war in Ukraine. For Israel, a greater reliance of Europe and certainly of the United States on Iran, as a substitute for Russia in the field of energy, is a policy that will harm Israel.
Iran can take advantage of this against Israel, even in the face of American criticism of Israel because of its policy toward Ukraine. Friction between Israel and the United States may weaken ties between them, including regarding coordination with Iran.
Iran is well aware of Biden’s constraints and is taking advantage of this to toughen its stance on negotiations, also because Israel does not have much influence over Biden on the issue.. Iran appears willing to sign an agreement, but its terms are exaggerated.
In an attempt to bring down the price of oil, and as part of an effort to reduce European dependence on Russia in this area, the Biden administration was forced to compromise on its policy in the Middle East, includingIran
Iran is ready and at least betting that its rivals will accept the terms of its negotiations. And if not, Iran estimates that it will be able to deal with the steps against it, certainly if they are not aggravated. At the same time, Iran continues to gradually move closer to nuclear weapons production.
Iran has been humiliated by Israel’s ability to strike inside it, as demonstrated in recent years. But that was not to stop the Iranian nuclear project. Iran may estimate that Israel will not carry out a widespread air strike on Iran, assuming that Israel is not yet ready for it militarily. Such an attack also depends on whether and to what extent the Biden administration will help Israel prepare for an attack on Iran. For example, speeding up the arrival of modern refueling planes in Israel, delivering huge bombs for the intrusion of bunkers, intelligence on Iran and more.
Iran may assume that it will succeed in advancing its nuclear project and even gaining operational nuclear weapons and / or improving active and passive defense of its nuclear infrastructure, before the IDF is ready to strike a heavy blow at Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
The IDF must therefore step up its preparations and be prepared to attack Iran even before the preparations are completed. This may come at a cost, including in human life, but there may be no choice. Israel can also attack more than once, and with all the consequences, complexity and risk of these measures, the alternative – Iran with nuclear weapons – will be much more serious.
Iran may assume that Israel will hesitate to attack in the coming months, because Israel is in an election period and a transitional government. It is also possible that the upcoming elections will not lead to a new government and there may even be more elections. Israel will be busy in this process, and Iran will take advantage of this.
Despite the sharp political struggle within Israel – there must be a kind of consensus at the political top of the relatively large parties on the issue. Israel must be united in its approach because it must do almost everything to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. The opposition must clearly support the government on this issue, with all the disagreements between them.
Despite the sharp political struggle in Israel, a consensus is needed at the top of the political arena on Iran. Israel must be united in that it must do almost everything to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons
Overall, Israel is in a relatively weak position in the Iranian context, including because of its status in the eyes of the Biden administration. Despite this, Israel must focus and do its best to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including through widespread attack before preparations for it are completed, if there is no better alternative.