The order of magnitude is spectacular: if the legal retirement age is pushed back from 62 to 65 – in accordance with Emmanuel Macron’s campaign promise – the savings induced by this decision would reach 32 billion euros. by 2035. This is one of the figures reported by the Ministry of Labor in the context of the consultation it opened in early October with the social partners on the reform of pension schemes. The discussions entered, the 1is December, in a third and final « cycle »which addresses the most sensitive issues: the financial situation of the system, which would return to a lasting deficit from 2023, and measures to be taken to restore ” the balance “.
Important clarification: the 32 billion in question correspond to a gross amount of savings. In other words, it does not take into account the measures that will be taken for the benefit of the insured and which will entail additional costs (raising the minimum wage to 85%, the minimum pension for people who have completed a full career, exceptional rules for people with disabilities, incapacity, handicap and for those who started working young, etc.). Other expenses, outside the pension system, are not taken into consideration: for example, social benefits paid to individuals who will not be able to stay in work until the age of 65 to receive their pension (unemployment insurance, social minima, etc.).
Alternative scenarios have been studied by the State services, in particular that which would consist in combining two changes of parameter: shift to 64 years (instead of 65) of the age of opening of rights and acceleration of the implementation of the “Touraine law” of January 2014, which provides for an increase in the contribution period to be eligible for the full rate. This “cocktail” would allow gross savings of 22.1 billion euros by 2035.
The Ministry of Labor has also examined the possibility of an increase in levies in order to meet the budgetary needs of the system – even if this track is very unlikely to be adopted, the executive having said that it was against . To bring the system back to equilibrium in 2032 by playing on the contribution rate, it would be necessary to increase the latter by 1.7 points, which would represent a drain of 760 euros per year and per employee, on average.
The Ministry of Labor also points out to the social partners that if the legislation remained as it is, deficits would accumulate, which would generate some 180 billion euros in additional debt by 2035. A projection carried out assuming productivity growth of 1% per year on average, over the period, and an unemployment rate of 4.5% – it stands at 7.3% today.