Pension reform will strongly increase the working population by 2030

2023-06-29 17:26:16

Important new data for the Pensions Orientation Council (COR). In the 2023 edition of its summary study on employment, unemployment and labor income published on Thursday, INSEE updated its forecasts for the active population taking into account the effects of the latest pension reform.

Main result: in 2070, France would have 29.8 million active people – that is to say people over the age of 15 active on the labor market, whether they are employed or unemployed. That is 600,000 more than what emerged from the previous projection.

As a reminder, the reform, enacted in mid-April, gradually lowers the legal age of eligibility from 62 to 64 in 2030. Another structural measure, it accelerates the Touraine reform of 2014, the contribution period to obtain a full rate increasing from 42 to 43 years by 2027, and no longer 2035. Added to this are adjustments to the retirement age for people who started working very early (“long careers”).

Peak in 2036

All of this obviously influences the activity behavior of the over 55s, whose activity rate will increase from 2023, recalls the National Statistical Institute, which has updated its projections at an unchanged population size. The exercise was also an opportunity to increase the share of work-study students for 15-24 year olds.

The revision of the active population, which must be considered as an order of magnitude, he insists, will be very strong from 2024 to 2029: it is multiplied by more than two, to +150,000 on average each year. The peak, at 31.2 million people, would thus be reached in 2036, against 30.5 million three years later according to the forecast excluding the effects of last year’s reform.

For 15-24 year olds, the new scenario increases the number of working people by 40,000 and the activity rate by 0.6 points over the entire projection period (taking into account recourse to apprenticeship constant compared to 2022 level).

It is obviously at the other end of the age pyramid that the reform produces the most effects. The decline in the legal age mechanically delays the date when it is possible to liquidate one’s retirement, while reaching the full rate will require quarters of additional contributions.

Specifically, the activity rate of 55-69 year olds, which “already saw a marked increase in the 2022 projection (+9.8 points by 2070)” will gain an additional 4.5 points. In the 60-64 age bracket, the one for which France is well below the other OECD countries, the reform will be in full swing: +10.9 points (+14.3 for women, +7.3 points for men), to slightly more than 70%.

The INSEE figures will allow the COR to update its financial forecasts on the scheme, the last delivered this month continuing to be debated, knowing that the national statistical institute does not project itself in the medium or long term on two other very important parameters for the calculations: the employment rate and the unemployment rate.