Posted Jan 8, 2023, 5:23 PMUpdated on Jan 8, 2023 at 7:02 p.m.
This is a timely statement for the government. The delay in the presentation of the pension reform, from mid-December to this Tuesday, January 10, will not have been lost on everyone. Admittedly, this short month will not have allowed the government to see the opposition of all the unions or of a large majority of French people diminish, since 68% are unfavorable to a decline in the age legal at 64 and up to 79% against a decline at 65, according to an Ifop poll published on Friday. But these few weeks will have made it possible to put an agreement with LR on track.
“I wish to be able to vote for a fair reform which saves our pay-as-you-go pension system”, assured the new president of LR Eric Ciotti, in an interview with the “Journal du dimanche”, adding that “the budgetary, demographic and economic situation imposes this reform”.
“There is only one credible and reasonable alternative: to ask current and future workers to work a little more over the working life”, continued Eric Ciotti, for whom supporting such a reform is a “question of coherence and responsibility” for a “right of government”. What put a little pressure on the few recalcitrants in his camp. In this interview, the president of LR retains as a rhythm, a shift in the legal retirement age to 63 years in 2027 and 64 years in 2032.
“The country is not ready for 65 years”
“At this stage, the sky is clearing, wants to believe an executive adviser. Eric Ciotti has understood that the fate of the right is also linked to the success of this reform to continue to be credible. On Sunday, the Minister of Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal, praised on France 3, in Sunday in politics, the “responsibility of LR”. “We announced a decline in the legal age over ten years”, he continued, “then we can adapt things”: “We have always said that it would be done gradually, on the horizon 2031.”
Friday, during an interview between Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne during which the Head of State gave some last major arbitrations, it is precisely the option of a shift in the legal age not to 65 years but at age 64 which was retained. Barring a rather improbable last minute change, it is this gradual decline – with 63 years in 2027 – which should be announced this Tuesday by the head of government.
“It is an option in line with his campaign commitments, it corresponds to the return to a financial balance and it allows a political agreement”, underlines the entourage of the Head of State. “The country is not ready for 65 years”, adds a Walker of the first hour.
LR and majority requests
But Eric Ciotti continues to set other conditions and the majority also wants to influence the reform. Le Modem, with François Bayrou, insists on the “fair distribution of efforts”. The president of the group of deputies Renaissance Aurore Bergé has constantly pleaded with Elisabeth Borne so that the minimum contributory amount of 85% of the minimum wage for a full career also applies to current retirees. It is in any case a “condition of the vote” of LR, insisted Eric Ciotti.
“That would suppose compensating for the cost so as not to jeopardize the balance of pensions”, replied Gabriel Attal in the “JDD”, referring to the arbitration of the Head of State and the Prime Minister.
Among the arbitrations that must be decided by Tuesday is the question of whether the demands of LR and the majority, at least those that are acceptable to the executive, must be integrated now into the government project, indicates a executive advisor. Because the agreement in view with LR should make it possible to avoid resorting to 49.3 to adopt the reform contained in a bill for the financing of social security amending (PLFSSR), at the time of framed debate.
But, despite the debate time framed by a PLFSSR, the executive fears that the parliamentary obstruction announced by LFI will prevent parliamentary debate and the adoption of amendments.
On the lookout for all discontent
Until then, the executive will obviously watch, like milk on the fire, on the mobilizations that the unions will launch. But also and above all the movements of opinion. “Of course, there will be people in the streets. But the main risk is the weakness of the unions and the emergence of pockets of protest totally out of control, difficult to anticipate and complicated to defuse, ”says a government source.
Hence Emmanuel Macron’s request to the government, during the last Council of Ministers, to be on the lookout for all the discontent and dysfunctions that are emerging, from bakers to VSEs, etc. To avoid any spark and new outbreak of fire. And then, says a relative, “we also need to improve on the explanation of the reform to the French, on the “why” and “where does the money go”.