The Pentagon is weighing a withdrawal of 25,000 to 40,000 U.S. troops from Europe as part of a six-month force posture review.
Pentagon Reviews Troop Levels and European Base Access
The six-month Pentagon review of U.S. military forces in Europe is examining whether American troops have assured access to allied bases and airspace as officials determine how forces should be positioned globally, according to the Department of War. The options under consideration are part of a broader review announced by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in June. Germany, Italy, and Spain, which host some of the largest U.S. deployments in Europe, are among the countries likely to be affected. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby stated during a visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels that the administration requires greater predictability from its partners when American forces are called upon to operate.
We're not looking in every context for a complete carte blanche, but we're saying that we need to be able to have the ability to operate effectively,
Elbridge Colby said Thursday. We need predictability.
Before Colby’s meeting with NATO’s 32 ambassadors on August 27, 2026, he visited Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, the alliance’s military command post near Mons, Belgium. SHAPE spokesman Col. Martin L. O’Donnell said Friday that Colby received briefings on how the command is increasing its warfighting readiness and strengthening NATO's ability to blunt an attack, on the eastern flank and beyond, to inform the U.S. posture review.
The review encompasses potential adjustments involving aviation, naval, and ground forces, as well as the possible repositioning of some U.S. forces toward NATO’s eastern flank. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who heads U.S. European Command and serves as NATO’s supreme allied commander, is expected to provide an initial analysis to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday, according to NBC News reporting. Hegseth is expected to receive a final recommendation November 6 before any proposal is presented to President Donald Trump.
NATO Questionnaires and Ally Concerns
As part of the evaluation, the Pentagon prepared a lengthy questionnaire looking to gauge countries’ commitment to the U.S. The assessment asks NATO allies to evaluate their commitment to U.S. foreign policy goals and their ability to take on a greater role in defending Europe, a senior U.S. defense official confirmed. One of the 57 questions on the list asks whether a country is publicly supportive of U.S. foreign policy priorities,
and some of the questionnaires had already been returned while officials were looking forward to reviewing the responses. SHAPE said the questionnaire and related documents were not public, referring questions to the Pentagon, which stated they could not be released.
The Trump administration has long argued that European countries should assume greater responsibility for their conventional defense while the U.S. focuses additional military resources on other regions. Officials in some NATO member states have expressed concerns that the review will result in significant cuts to the roughly 80,000-troop U.S. military presence in Europe and punish allies that denied U.S. access to bases or airspace during the Iran war. Reuters reported that Hegseth was planning to announce the 25,000 cut in June but instead announced the six-month force posture review after his initial plan faced internal opposition. The possible reductions have prompted concern among some lawmakers and European governments, which have warned that a rapid withdrawal could affect NATO’s ability to deter Russia.
The report comes as senators have separately called on Secretary of State Marco Rubio to ensure the State Department and U.S. diplomats are fully involved in the force posture review. The State Department and Pentagon have reportedly differed over the review process, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly intervening in June after the Pentagon prepared to brief NATO defense ministers on potential large-scale reductions. Meanwhile, Colby’s visit to Europe coincided with CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unannounced visit to Moscow, where he reportedly warned the Kremlin against escalating tensions with NATO allies.
Strategic Tradeoffs and Expert Perspectives
Analysts remain divided on the utility of maintaining large garrisons abroad. Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, noted the historical context of the deployment: “The number of U.S. forces in Europe is already at a historic low, amounting to only about 15 percent of the level seen at the peak of the Cold War. Already, about 85 percent of U.S. ground forces are permanently based in the United States. This means that withdrawing several thousand U.S. troops from Europe would have no meaningful impact on America’s overall security in the Western Hemisphere, but it would have an impact on U.S. strategic interests.”
Conversely, Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, questioned the underlying assumptions of the posture during an interview with the Daily Caller News Foundation: The answer depends on whether you think that the U.S. still has very important security interests in Europe. If we do, … these new conditions are self-defeating. We want access to defend our interests there. Whether they also help elsewhere is simply a bonus, not a requirement.