“Peronism could suffer a historic failure”

2023-06-03 06:00:00

The “clinical eye” of Alejandro Catterberg, Political analyst. director of Poliarquía Consultores and with several electoral tests on his shoulders, he perceives that this year the social mood will be reflected in the polls. Faced with a crisis that could possibly lead Peronism to a “historical failure” and jeopardize the victory that Together for Change I thought I had insured a year ago, ratifies the irruption of Javier Milei’s rupturist proposal. and predicts that discontent will be expressed in the PASO of August 11 and the general elections of October 22.

“It is a particular electoral process. The first singularity is social humor and almost certainly that will have a manifestation at the polls. we are in front of most critical state of public opinion since 2001, in a context marked by the disbelief, mistrust and anger of a broad sector of society towards the political class”, he evaluated, when transmitting his gaze in an interview with THE NATION.

How will this discontent manifest itself?

-It will be given, mainly, through the figure of Javier Mile. And, if it were not so, it will be reflected in some way. We have to compare it with the legislative election of 2001. Many indicators today are at the same levels as in June of that year, when the country was dragging four years of recession, high unemployment, a political crisis that had led to the resignation of the vice president and a strong disappointment. It was the first time since the recovery of democracy that less than 80% voted and 25% chose the blank or contested vote.

Is the scenario similar today?

-The difference is that this year the election is presidential and, instead of voting blank, many people say they are going to vote for Milei.

Alejandro Catterberg perceives a scenario similar to the 2001 legislative elections, characterized by strong social discontentXAVIER MARTIN/ AFV

– The angry vote in 2001 was channeled towards the opposition?

-Not necessarily. He won Peronism, but his electoral flow did not improve. The most salient feature was the blank or annulled vote. Today, 22 years later, we have a similar social climate. The institutional opposition does not benefit from this context. Today it does not seem that Together for Change, locked in an internship, is going to increase its number of votes. And Peronism is heading towards a historic defeat. All this feeds a new emerging, which is Milei.

Is this distrust general and uniform throughout the country?

Yes, it’s general. It is not necessary to analyze the provincial and municipal elections with national logic. These results correspond to local logics. Even so, in most provinces the governors have fewer votes and absenteeism and blank votes are on the rise. Milei’s figure is strong at the national level. Even inside.

Catterberg affirms that “today the rich kids mostly vote for Milei and the poor kids mostly vote for Javier Milei”Anadolu Agency – Anadolu

Where is the anger most concentrated?

-The variable that best explains what happens has to do with age. It is a paradigm shift. Voter behavior was always analyzed based on socioeconomic level. Historically, the lower sectors voted for Peronism and the middle sectors chose non-Peronist options. Today the rich kids mostly vote for Milei and the poor kids mostly vote for Milei. There is a very interesting generational question and it will be necessary to see if it is reflected in the polls.

– Is it a phenomenon that is also registered in other countries?

-Part of the support for Milei should not be just a matter of the Argentine circumstances, where poverty is strongly concentrated among young people. In those over 60 years of age, poverty rises to 20% and in those under 25 years of age, it exceeds 50 percent. Young people do not have opportunities, they have not seen economic growth for ten years, they see few prospects and possibilities, and informal work and inflation are added to this. They go in search of new leaders, they remove the file from the profile of the traditional politician, whom they see as false, they get information through new channels.

“Peronism could suffer a historic failure”

Alejandro Catterberg

-What levels of adherence are there today?

-The probabilities of the Government to win are very low. Cristina Kirchner herself acknowledges it. Things are worse than in 2021, when they lost the legislative elections. The main opposition force should have a high chance of winning and that was the scenario that the leaders of Together for Change saw. But that perspective that the election was already won is an understatement of reality. The Government had a circumstance that weakened it: the drought. Another Together for Change understatement was Milei. That perhaps wrong diagnosis and the dynamics of the leadership transition in Together for Change led them to an internalism that ends up being harmful.

Facing the upcoming elections, the analyst Alejandro Catterberg points out that “the chances of the Government winning are very low and “Cristina Kirchner herself admits it”

– Did the perspectives change in a year?

-Today it is difficult to foresee that Together for Change will win in the first round, when a year ago it was a plausible scenario. It is also difficult for him to reach a majority in the Chamber of Deputies or add more legislators, when a year ago this could be foreseen. It may be that this process of internship, loss of identity and connection with society will not cost him the presidential election, but it may end up costing him to win several provinces and cities.

-What challenges will the winner face?

-The next president is going to need a lot of political power to face a sustained reform process and to bankroll the costs and consequences of the reform process. Having legislative majorities is not the same as having to negotiate agreements with other political sectors.

-The depth of the crisis is going to require a president with power, but at the same time in a very fragmented scenario?

-What is at stake is the reconstruction of political power. A decade ago there has been no capacity to impose an agenda, nor conditions to generate agreements. There is little power to lead and steer the country in one direction and many actors with the capacity to block.

” -What is at stake is the reconstruction of political power,” says political analyst Alejandro CatterbergXAVIER MARTIN/ AFV

-What is the exit?

-Society will not improve its social humor until the economy improves. And the economy will not start to improve until there is a reconfiguration of the political system and a consolidation of power sufficient to face a reform process.

-The electoral competitiveness of Together for Change varies if the candidate is Horacio Rodríguez Larreta or is Patricia Bullrich?

-Today that difference is a nuance in front of a scenario in which it is not defined if Juntos por el Cambio wins or if Milei wins. The country is heading towards a ballotage scenario, in which it is not clear which are the two forces that will enter. In a ballotage between Larreta or Bullrich with Milei, the decisive factor will be how the 30% of society that has voted for hard Kirchnerism and the left will behave. If Together for Change manages to consolidate the sum of the parts, it has a more open path. The complication of his internalism, the blurring of his message and the loss of identity are leading to the fact that the sum of the parts is not guaranteed after the primaries.

For Alejandro Catterberg, Macri retains a strong influence in Together for ChangeRicardo Access

-What influence does Mauricio Macri have?

-A lot. It’s fundamental. The two main figures in Argentina continue to be Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri. The two suffer a process of attrition that does not allow them to be candidates for president. They have no chance of winning the election. This relative weakness in the general population coexists with a strength within the coalitions.

-What impact will the crisis have on the Frente de Todos?

-It is highly likely that the Frente de Todos will lose the election. What is not clear is how he could lose. You can lose by a landslide or go into overtime and lose on penalties. It is not the same to obtain a third of the votes, reach the ballotage, win the province of Buenos Aires and retain a good number of deputies and senators, than to suffer a historic defeat, gather less than 30%, be left with less than 100 deputies and lose several provinces. Before the drought, the first scenario (penalties and overtime) seemed closer and after the drought it seemed more like the second scenario.

-Can a possible internship between a Kirchnerist candidate and Daniel Scioli revitalize Peronism?

-No. Once Alberto Fernández resigned from his candidacy, the internship was defined. He could have turned things around if he kept up his re-election bid. Another disruptive factor would be if the electoral agreement of the Frente de Todos generated the departure of Sergio Massa as Minister of Economy. This second scenario, although still possible, is losing consistency. Kirchnerism can avoid sitting down to negotiate with Alberto Fernández, but it cannot avoid sitting down to negotiate with Massa. I sense that Massa and Máximo Kirchner’s trip to China has a lot to do with electoral planning.

Can Milei’s figure continue to rise?

-The support for Milei is based on the climate of the time we live in. Milei is not the cause, it is the consequence. You are in the right place, at the right time for your interests.

-How will Peronism be reorganized if the election is a failure and does not reach the ballotage?

-Cristina Kirchner continues to maintain between 25% and 30% support in society. She and Kirchnerism have an identity, a message, a rhetoric, a story. Even in the scenario of a very strong defeat, I would not minimize the relevance that space may continue to have in Argentine political life. I would not dare to say the phrase “it is the end of Kirchnerism.”

Conocé The Trust Project