Fuel prices in the Philippines are expected to move mixed next week, with diesel prices potentially falling by up to P2 per liter while gasoline may rise by as much as P2.20, according to multiple industry sources.
This move has already begun influencing regional markets, with diesel prices set to decline as early as Tuesday, Oct. 13, after oil companies announce adjustments on Monday.
G7’s Role in Diesel Price Cuts
The G7’s planned release of reserves has become a central factor in the diesel price decline. A source from GMA Network reported that diesel weakened on Friday after the announcement, with prices expected to drop between P1.00 and P1.20 per liter. DOE director Rino Abad noted that diesel prices would roll back by P1.80 to P2 per liter, attributing the trend to the G7’s intervention.
However, the extent of the rollback varies across sources. ABS-CBN reported a potential P2 per liter decline, while GMA’s source cited a narrower range. These discrepancies likely reflect differences in market analysis and regional price benchmarks, such as the Mean of Platts Singapore.
Gasoline Hikes Amid Supply Concerns
While diesel prices fall, gasoline is projected to rise sharply. Industry sources predicted a P2.00 to P2.20 per liter increase, driven by tight global supply and strong regional demand. GMA Network’s source echoed this, estimating a P1.80 to P2.00 hike, though both outlets pointed to similar causes: China’s export ban and ongoing refinery shutdowns in Southeast Asia.
Market Volatility and Future Outlook
Despite the G7’s intervention, market conditions remain uncertain. Market sources indicated that although oil prices had declined slightly this week because of the reserve releases, ongoing tanker attacks and increased tensions in the region have renewed supply concerns and may lead to price fluctuations in the coming days. This week, according to available price adjustment bulletins, diesel prices dropped by up to P1.30 per liter, while gasoline prices increased by up to P1.93 per liter.
Oil companies announce official price movements every Monday, to be implemented on the following day. The final outcome will depend on how global supply dynamics evolve, particularly the interplay between the G7’s reserves and regional disruptions.
The mixed trend highlights the complex forces shaping fuel markets, from international policy decisions to natural disasters.
The situation highlights the global interconnectedness of energy markets, where policy decisions in one region can ripple across continents. As the G7’s actions unfold, the Philippines’ fuel prices will remain a barometer of broader economic and geopolitical shifts.
